***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 10.7 12.2 13.9 3.6 88.8 84.3 7.5 8.8 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 10.6 12.1 13.4 3.5 89.2 83.8 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 12.5 13.8 13.8 3.3 88.5 84.1 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 8.2 8.9 10.3 2.6 81.7 79.3 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 9.9 11.0 11.5 3.0 85.6 82.2 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 8.8 9.5 8.9 2.6 81.8 79.0 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 10.4 11.7 13.4 3.4 88.9 83.4 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 5.0 5.8 9.0 2.6 83.3 79.6 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 10.7 11.9 11.6 3.1 87.3 83.0 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 10.2 11.2 9.9 2.9 85.6 81.4 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 9.7 10.5 10.6 2.6 83.2 79.8 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 8.5 9.2 9.8 2.6 82.5 79.1 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 9.2 9.7 9.3 2.3 79.5 76.2 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 10.4 11.4 11.3 2.9 86.3 81.5 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 10.5 11.0 11.5 2.3 80.7 78.0 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 10.7 11.3 9.9 2.5 80.9 77.9 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 10.6 11.8 13.0 3.3 88.4 82.8 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 9.1 10.0 9.2 2.8 84.0 79.6 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 10.4 11.7 13.4 3.4 89.1 83.9 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 5.5 6.4 7.7 2.7 82.1 78.1 2.9 4.0 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 10.0 11.4 12.9 3.3 88.0 84.0 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 9.5 10.7 13.0 3.2 87.7 82.3 7.1 8.1 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 9.9 11.2 13.2 3.2 88.6 83.4 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 9.5 10.4 11.2 2.9 86.2 81.7 7.2 8.2 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 10.9 12.3 12.9 3.4 87.6 84.0 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 9.4 9.8 9.0 2.4 79.0 75.8 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 11.3 12.9 13.5 3.6 88.7 84.2 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 8.9 9.5 10.4 2.4 80.2 77.7 6.4 7.5 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 8.5 9.4 8.6 2.6 83.1 78.8 5.9 7.0 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 11.0 12.5 13.6 3.5 89.2 84.1 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------