***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 8.2 8.7 11.1 1.6 72.3 67.8 5.3 6.7 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 8.2 8.5 10.5 1.5 71.5 67.1 5.2 6.6 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 10.3 10.7 11.0 1.6 73.3 69.0 7.7 8.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 5.5 5.8 8.3 1.6 72.3 68.3 2.9 4.1 5.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 7.2 7.7 8.6 1.5 71.1 67.6 4.6 5.9 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 6.4 6.6 6.8 1.3 69.6 65.9 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 7.9 8.1 10.5 1.4 70.7 66.3 5.4 6.6 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 1.8 3.0 6.9 1.2 68.5 65.1 -0.1 1.4 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 8.1 8.5 9.0 1.5 71.6 67.9 5.7 6.9 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 46 54 100 7.7 8.1 7.6 1.4 70.5 66.9 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 7.3 7.5 8.0 1.4 69.7 66.3 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 5.5 6.5 7.4 1.2 68.2 64.9 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 6.0 6.8 6.9 1.2 66.5 63.4 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 8.2 8.4 8.9 1.4 70.5 66.8 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 7.8 8.1 9.3 1.6 72.7 68.1 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 7.5 8.3 7.4 1.3 68.3 64.9 6.0 7.1 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 7.8 8.0 10.2 1.4 70.1 65.9 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 6.7 6.9 6.9 1.4 69.8 66.4 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 8.1 8.4 10.6 1.5 72.3 67.9 5.4 6.7 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 2.4 3.2 5.3 1.1 65.2 62.1 0.7 2.0 3.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 7.9 8.3 10.3 1.6 72.8 68.8 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 7.2 7.3 10.1 1.4 71.1 67.0 4.7 5.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 8.0 8.2 10.6 1.5 72.5 68.4 5.3 6.5 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 7.3 7.5 8.6 1.5 71.9 68.3 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 8.4 8.9 9.9 1.7 72.9 68.6 5.6 7.0 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.3 6.9 6.8 1.1 67.1 63.9 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 8.8 9.3 10.5 1.6 71.9 67.4 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 6.2 6.4 8.3 1.5 70.9 67.1 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 5.3 6.3 6.5 1.2 67.8 64.5 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 8.5 8.8 10.7 1.5 71.9 67.4 5.5 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------