***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.5 6.1 8.7 0.3 53.8 52.5 4.8 5.9 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.2 6.0 8.2 0.2 52.3 51.5 4.6 5.8 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.5 8.0 8.7 0.2 53.5 52.1 6.7 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 3.5 3.1 5.9 0.2 52.7 51.6 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.3 6.2 0.1 50.8 50.4 4.1 5.2 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.5 4.5 0.0 49.6 50.2 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.4 5.9 8.1 0.1 51.6 50.9 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -0.5 0.9 4.6 0.0 49.4 49.4 -0.3 0.9 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.8 6.2 6.5 0.0 50.5 50.1 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.6 5.8 5.2 0.0 49.8 49.6 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.3 5.6 -0.1 49.3 49.4 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.5 5.0 -0.1 49.2 49.5 3.5 4.6 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.8 5.0 4.6 -0.1 48.1 49.4 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.8 6.3 6.5 0.1 50.8 50.2 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.5 6.8 0.2 52.8 51.5 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.2 5.1 -0.1 48.9 49.6 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.3 5.8 7.9 0.1 51.0 50.7 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.3 4.6 4.5 -0.1 49.2 49.2 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.5 6.0 8.2 0.2 52.5 51.6 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 0.3 1.7 3.0 -0.2 47.8 48.4 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.4 5.9 7.9 0.2 52.7 51.5 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.7 5.3 7.8 0.1 51.9 51.3 4.1 5.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.8 8.1 0.2 52.3 51.3 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.1 5.4 6.1 0.0 50.7 50.1 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.9 6.5 7.5 0.3 54.1 52.7 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.2 5.3 4.5 -0.2 47.5 49.0 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.9 6.6 8.1 0.2 53.0 51.9 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.4 5.9 0.1 51.8 51.0 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 2.2 3.7 4.1 -0.1 48.5 48.6 2.6 3.8 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.5 6.3 8.4 0.2 52.9 51.9 4.8 6.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------