***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 8.7 9.3 11.7 1.8 84.0 78.3 7.1 7.8 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 8.8 9.5 11.1 1.6 82.9 77.2 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 10.7 11.2 11.6 1.6 83.1 78.3 9.3 9.9 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 5.9 6.3 8.5 1.3 77.5 73.5 4.6 5.2 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 8.1 8.6 9.3 1.5 80.7 76.6 6.2 7.0 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 7.1 7.4 7.0 1.1 75.0 71.7 5.6 6.3 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 8.7 9.2 11.1 1.6 83.1 77.0 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 3.1 3.3 7.1 1.1 74.8 71.4 1.7 2.3 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 9.0 9.4 9.4 1.4 80.6 76.4 7.3 8.0 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 8.5 8.8 7.9 1.2 77.9 74.0 7.0 7.7 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 8.1 8.4 8.6 1.2 76.3 72.7 6.5 7.2 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 7.1 7.3 7.8 1.1 75.4 72.1 5.5 6.2 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 7.6 7.8 7.4 1.0 73.0 69.9 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 8.9 9.3 9.2 1.4 80.1 75.6 7.6 8.1 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 8.5 8.8 9.7 1.1 76.3 72.1 7.2 7.8 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 8.9 9.2 8.0 1.2 75.2 71.9 7.4 8.1 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 8.7 9.1 10.7 1.5 81.7 75.9 7.2 7.8 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 7.5 7.8 7.2 1.2 76.7 73.0 5.8 6.6 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 8.6 9.1 11.1 1.6 82.5 77.2 7.2 7.8 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 4.0 4.1 5.7 1.1 73.1 69.7 2.4 3.1 3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 8.6 9.1 10.8 1.6 83.0 78.3 6.7 7.5 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 7.8 8.3 10.7 1.5 81.3 75.9 6.4 7.0 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 8.4 8.8 11.0 1.5 81.4 76.6 6.8 7.5 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 8.1 8.4 9.1 1.3 80.0 75.9 6.7 7.3 7.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 9.1 9.8 10.6 1.7 83.3 78.2 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 7.8 7.9 7.2 1.0 73.0 70.2 6.4 7.0 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 9.3 10.2 11.2 1.8 84.4 78.6 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 7.1 7.4 8.6 1.2 76.0 72.3 5.6 6.3 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 6.5 6.7 6.6 1.0 73.8 70.5 5.2 5.8 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 9.0 9.6 11.3 1.7 83.2 77.4 7.4 8.1 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------