***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 18.7 19.8 19.0 1.4 66.8 62.8 16.4 18.1 19.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 18.9 19.9 18.9 1.5 67.2 63.2 16.7 18.3 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 19.0 19.8 19.2 1.2 64.2 60.8 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 13.0 12.6 16.6 1.2 64.1 60.9 9.6 11.2 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 19.0 19.3 17.4 0.9 60.4 57.8 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 18.4 18.8 16.0 0.9 60.5 57.3 15.8 17.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 19.6 19.8 19.0 1.6 69.0 64.6 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.8 16.3 0.6 56.8 54.8 7.2 9.0 10.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 19.1 19.4 17.9 1.0 60.8 58.0 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.7 18.9 17.0 0.9 59.6 56.8 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 19.0 19.1 17.4 0.7 58.0 55.8 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 18.4 18.3 17.1 0.5 55.8 54.2 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 19.1 19.2 16.7 0.7 57.6 55.5 16.7 18.5 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 19.5 19.9 17.8 0.9 60.6 57.8 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 18.0 18.7 17.2 1.3 65.2 61.7 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 19.6 19.8 17.1 0.8 58.9 56.4 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 19.5 19.7 18.8 1.6 69.7 65.1 16.1 17.8 19.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 18.0 18.2 16.8 0.8 59.0 56.4 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 18.8 19.7 19.1 1.4 65.8 62.1 16.6 18.2 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.3 14.6 0.6 56.8 54.8 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 18.9 19.5 18.5 1.2 63.4 60.1 16.6 18.2 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 19.1 20.2 18.7 1.5 68.1 63.8 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 19.1 19.8 19.2 1.2 64.0 60.6 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 19.3 19.7 17.9 1.0 60.7 57.7 16.8 18.6 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 18.3 19.1 17.4 1.3 65.8 62.1 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 18.8 18.7 16.6 0.5 56.2 54.7 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 18.8 19.9 18.4 1.5 67.8 63.5 16.5 18.2 19.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 18.4 19.1 16.9 1.2 63.7 60.5 16.3 17.8 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.5 16.0 0.7 57.4 55.3 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 19.7 19.6 19.0 1.4 66.4 62.6 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------