***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.5 16.7 0.7 57.9 55.6 14.3 15.8 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.4 16.6 0.7 57.7 55.7 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.9 16.9 0.5 55.8 54.0 14.8 16.4 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.3 14.2 0.5 56.4 54.3 7.9 9.6 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.9 15.1 0.3 53.0 52.1 15.0 16.6 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.6 13.9 0.3 53.1 52.2 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.5 16.6 0.7 58.6 56.4 14.3 15.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.4 14.3 0.1 51.4 51.3 6.8 8.2 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.2 15.6 0.3 53.3 52.3 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.6 14.9 0.3 53.0 52.3 14.7 16.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 17.5 16.9 15.2 0.1 51.2 50.9 15.2 16.8 18.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.7 14.9 0.0 50.1 50.1 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.4 14.5 0.1 51.1 51.0 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.0 15.8 0.4 54.1 52.8 14.9 16.6 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.9 14.8 0.6 57.1 54.3 14.0 15.3 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 18.5 18.0 14.9 0.2 51.9 51.4 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.1 16.4 0.8 59.4 57.1 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.8 14.8 0.3 53.3 52.6 13.9 15.5 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.5 16.8 0.6 56.9 55.0 14.3 15.8 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.7 12.8 0.3 52.7 52.5 11.9 13.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.0 16.3 0.5 55.3 53.6 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.7 16.4 0.7 58.4 56.5 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.6 17.0 0.5 55.8 54.0 14.6 16.1 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.1 15.8 0.4 54.1 52.8 15.1 16.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.3 15.1 0.6 57.7 55.4 14.2 15.7 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 17.4 16.9 14.4 0.0 50.4 50.2 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.0 16.1 0.7 58.6 56.2 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.2 14.5 0.5 55.9 53.8 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.7 14.1 0.3 52.6 52.3 10.8 12.5 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.4 16.6 0.6 57.1 55.2 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------