***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 19.9 20.1 19.8 1.6 75.2 71.4 18.2 18.9 19.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 20.0 20.2 19.8 1.6 75.0 71.3 18.5 19.1 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 20.2 20.4 20.2 1.5 73.5 70.1 18.6 19.3 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 13.2 13.5 17.1 1.5 73.7 69.9 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 20.2 20.4 18.4 1.4 71.1 67.8 18.7 19.4 20.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 19.7 19.9 17.0 1.4 72.1 68.0 18.0 18.8 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 19.7 20.0 19.8 1.7 76.8 72.7 18.2 18.9 19.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 10.7 10.7 17.2 1.2 68.6 65.4 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 20.3 20.5 19.1 1.4 71.8 68.4 18.7 19.5 20.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 19.9 20.1 18.1 1.5 73.0 69.1 18.3 19.1 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 20.3 20.4 18.7 1.3 69.3 66.2 18.7 19.5 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 19.3 19.8 18.0 1.0 65.9 63.4 18.2 19.0 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 20.6 20.6 18.0 1.1 66.8 64.1 19.0 19.8 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 20.6 20.9 19.3 1.6 75.0 71.0 19.0 19.7 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 19.4 19.6 18.4 1.4 72.6 69.1 17.9 18.6 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 21.1 21.1 18.2 1.2 68.5 65.6 19.5 20.3 21.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 19.4 19.7 19.6 1.7 77.3 73.2 17.9 18.6 19.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 19.3 19.5 17.7 1.5 72.8 68.8 17.7 18.4 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 19.9 20.1 20.1 1.6 74.8 71.2 18.3 19.0 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 16.3 16.4 15.6 1.1 68.4 65.1 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 20.2 20.4 19.7 1.6 74.1 70.5 18.6 19.3 20.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 20.1 20.5 19.7 1.7 77.9 73.6 18.5 19.2 19.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 20.1 20.3 20.3 1.6 75.2 71.4 18.6 19.3 19.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 20.5 20.7 19.2 1.6 74.2 70.3 18.7 19.5 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 19.5 19.6 18.3 1.5 73.7 70.0 18.1 18.7 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 19.7 20.0 17.2 0.8 62.0 60.2 18.7 19.5 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 20.0 20.3 19.2 1.6 75.8 71.7 18.4 19.1 19.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 19.8 20.1 17.8 1.5 73.7 69.9 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 15.5 15.6 17.0 1.3 70.5 67.0 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 19.8 20.0 19.8 1.5 74.3 70.8 18.2 18.9 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------