***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 7.4 10.7 12.3 113.4 69.1 60.2 2.8 5.6 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.9 10.4 10.8 120.5 70.9 60.0 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.5 11.4 9.4 93.5 62.7 52.6 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 17.1 17.8 12.2 82.3 58.4 51.8 6.7 13.4 22.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.5 11.6 9.4 74.7 55.8 48.5 5.0 9.6 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 11.0 11.6 11.0 80.6 57.9 51.2 3.9 8.5 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.4 14.3 11.6 130.6 73.3 62.1 2.8 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.2 13.2 10.2 71.1 53.2 47.6 6.3 11.9 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.0 9.5 8.4 68.9 53.4 45.3 4.9 8.6 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.8 10.4 8.8 62.9 49.9 42.8 5.7 10.4 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.8 10.1 7.7 59.4 49.5 42.7 5.5 10.3 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.6 9.2 8.8 71.0 54.3 48.1 3.9 7.9 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.3 8.5 9.4 69.9 53.8 47.7 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.1 10.2 83.0 58.2 50.0 5.9 10.3 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 12.0 9.8 9.0 62.8 52.4 46.6 4.0 8.8 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 8.4 7.7 9.7 74.1 55.5 49.1 2.9 6.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 9.8 11.3 11.6 137.2 74.9 62.4 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 11.4 9.8 10.0 71.2 52.1 45.4 5.4 9.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.5 10.1 10.4 112.6 68.8 58.1 3.4 6.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.4 12.2 79.7 55.8 49.7 5.4 9.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.1 9.1 78.8 57.6 48.4 4.6 8.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 11.0 11.6 11.0 126.0 72.3 60.4 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.7 10.8 10.2 103.7 65.9 55.6 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.7 10.4 8.7 73.1 53.8 45.8 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 10.9 16.2 14.0 112.1 68.5 60.7 4.0 8.4 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 9.1 14.0 12.3 103.6 66.3 60.1 3.2 7.3 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 14.1 14.6 13.9 121.6 71.2 63.0 3.2 6.9 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.3 11.2 9.7 67.9 53.1 46.8 4.8 10.0 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.3 16.9 11.0 77.6 54.8 47.7 8.4 14.8 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.3 10.6 10.5 113.7 69.1 58.7 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------