***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.0 5.2 9.9 77.1 56.4 41.0 2.0 4.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.3 5.2 8.5 65.9 52.1 38.6 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.3 7.4 11.3 86.4 60.0 42.5 2.1 4.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.6 13.4 14.0 101.1 65.7 46.5 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.2 11.6 13.2 102.4 65.8 47.9 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.6 12.5 12.8 94.4 63.3 45.6 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.8 4.3 8.4 65.6 51.4 38.3 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.6 17.8 14.8 104.9 66.4 48.4 5.3 10.4 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.3 11.0 13.3 100.6 64.9 46.5 3.1 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.9 15.2 15.1 106.7 66.8 48.5 4.7 8.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.6 11.8 12.7 101.5 65.5 47.2 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.4 11.8 12.8 102.1 65.9 48.0 3.1 6.7 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.8 13.3 13.3 102.0 65.9 48.1 3.8 7.7 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.5 15.0 16.2 97.4 64.0 45.9 4.1 8.9 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.9 11.5 14.7 105.2 67.7 46.6 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.9 10.9 12.6 101.0 65.6 46.8 3.0 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.2 4.3 8.1 60.1 48.8 36.8 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.5 16.2 16.9 111.1 67.9 50.2 4.7 9.2 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.4 6.4 9.4 72.8 55.3 40.0 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.7 14.9 19.0 108.8 67.1 51.9 4.4 8.5 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.9 9.1 12.0 94.0 62.8 44.1 3.1 5.9 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.3 4.5 9.0 62.4 49.9 37.4 2.2 4.5 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.4 8.0 11.4 85.6 60.4 42.4 2.1 5.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.9 13.3 15.8 105.8 66.4 47.3 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.8 7.5 11.1 81.5 58.5 43.7 2.4 5.5 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.9 12.9 14.0 103.5 66.8 47.4 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.6 6.2 10.0 75.4 55.7 41.7 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.0 10.9 14.2 107.1 67.7 46.8 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 15.9 21.2 18.2 114.0 68.7 52.0 5.9 11.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.0 5.1 9.2 70.6 54.2 40.0 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------