***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.7 13.3 11.0 91.9 62.5 48.2 3.7 8.2 15.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.7 10.1 9.3 83.3 59.8 45.6 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.6 14.2 11.3 98.5 64.4 49.5 3.9 8.4 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.4 12.5 12.2 89.8 61.8 47.5 3.7 8.1 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.1 12.8 12.5 102.0 65.4 49.8 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.1 8.8 11.4 91.5 61.9 47.0 2.8 5.7 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.7 9.2 83.1 60.0 44.9 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.1 16.7 13.8 107.5 66.6 52.3 5.0 9.8 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.1 13.3 13.4 110.1 67.5 50.7 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.5 16.3 14.6 113.9 68.5 53.2 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.0 12.2 12.3 106.2 66.6 50.9 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.3 11.8 101.5 65.0 49.8 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.1 10.4 11.8 94.5 63.1 48.1 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.5 23.5 14.6 113.0 68.3 52.9 6.2 12.3 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.9 9.0 11.7 79.6 59.2 43.9 2.5 6.1 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.4 11.6 97.6 64.1 48.9 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.0 7.4 8.9 77.3 57.6 44.2 2.6 5.5 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.4 14.3 15.3 116.3 69.0 54.2 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.9 13.8 9.7 86.7 60.5 46.3 4.1 9.1 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 16.1 17.0 107.2 66.0 52.5 4.7 9.4 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.4 15.6 12.3 106.5 66.6 50.7 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.9 9.8 9.4 77.5 57.0 44.6 3.1 7.3 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.9 15.6 10.7 96.8 63.7 48.8 4.1 9.1 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.1 19.4 13.9 112.9 68.2 53.5 4.2 9.7 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.2 13.2 12.4 93.9 63.2 48.7 3.2 7.7 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.2 10.6 11.5 87.9 61.1 46.4 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.9 12.1 11.6 92.2 62.7 48.3 3.7 7.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.2 11.5 87.7 61.4 46.6 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.2 18.7 15.3 112.6 67.8 53.7 5.3 10.5 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.9 10.0 88.2 61.4 46.8 3.5 7.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------