***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 20.0 39.2 44.8 97.1 58.0 51.2 19.6 31.9 47.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 20.3 36.5 40.1 93.6 56.3 50.7 19.5 31.3 46.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 24.7 45.0 43.6 95.3 56.6 49.2 25.6 39.0 55.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 64.2 62.1 52.4 94.5 56.4 49.3 38.0 54.8 74.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 28.3 45.3 46.2 92.5 54.8 47.7 27.8 41.1 56.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 49.1 40.3 45.2 84.0 49.2 44.6 27.1 41.0 58.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 35.7 35.3 41.1 96.5 58.1 52.7 16.9 28.4 43.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 67.5 62.1 48.7 90.1 52.4 46.9 45.6 60.0 75.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 28.5 43.2 45.1 91.3 53.8 46.3 28.4 40.2 54.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 56.9 52.3 48.6 90.6 52.8 46.0 37.5 50.0 64.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 29.1 44.5 44.6 90.6 53.5 47.1 28.8 41.6 56.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 45.9 43.5 44.6 92.5 54.7 48.9 27.7 39.5 53.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 49.0 45.7 47.5 92.0 54.6 49.0 29.1 41.9 57.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 41.9 68.8 54.3 98.5 57.8 49.0 42.3 60.0 80.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 46.3 40.7 50.1 88.1 53.9 46.6 22.1 36.8 55.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 42.2 40.0 46.2 92.5 54.9 48.8 24.8 36.3 49.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 31.5 30.4 40.8 94.7 56.9 51.5 14.9 25.3 38.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 55.0 52.5 52.9 95.0 54.6 47.4 35.5 48.5 63.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 25.2 44.8 41.2 94.7 56.6 50.1 25.2 38.6 55.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 61.1 60.9 64.4 99.3 57.2 51.6 41.2 54.5 69.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 28.2 46.6 44.7 94.6 56.0 48.2 27.8 41.0 57.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 40.2 36.7 41.8 91.0 54.6 48.6 20.6 32.7 47.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 25.4 47.9 44.4 98.6 58.5 50.4 26.6 40.0 56.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 32.9 57.7 50.7 98.4 57.4 48.5 33.5 49.4 68.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 47.0 46.3 50.3 97.4 57.8 50.9 22.6 37.7 56.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 50.3 48.3 48.5 94.4 55.9 50.1 31.1 43.3 57.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 40.8 40.5 47.7 98.5 58.7 52.3 19.6 32.5 48.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 25.3 41.2 48.2 89.7 54.1 47.2 24.7 37.6 53.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 77.3 75.2 56.5 97.9 56.4 49.2 51.2 68.2 87.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 20.5 37.7 41.1 94.1 56.5 50.6 20.6 32.3 47.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------