***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 7.8 7.8 10.0 -1.6 26.1 27.9 8.4 9.6 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 7.8 8.0 10.1 -1.2 30.9 32.6 8.2 9.5 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 10.3 10.4 10.1 -1.3 29.6 31.5 10.7 11.7 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 5.1 5.4 7.9 -1.4 27.9 29.5 5.8 7.1 8.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 6.9 7.0 8.3 -1.3 27.8 29.4 7.4 8.7 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 6.4 6.6 6.6 -1.1 30.8 32.2 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 8.1 8.2 9.9 -1.4 28.0 29.8 8.6 9.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.0 2.9 7.1 -0.7 37.5 38.5 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 8.5 8.6 8.8 -1.2 29.3 30.9 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.8 8.5 7.6 -0.9 35.1 36.3 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 7.6 7.6 8.0 -1.2 29.5 31.0 7.9 9.0 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.3 6.8 7.5 -1.0 32.5 33.8 6.8 7.9 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 6.9 7.0 7.0 -1.4 26.9 28.4 7.4 8.5 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 10.3 9.4 9.2 -0.7 38.2 39.6 9.1 10.0 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 8.1 8.2 8.8 -1.6 23.7 25.6 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 8.4 8.4 7.6 -1.3 27.6 29.2 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 8.6 8.8 9.9 -1.0 33.9 35.4 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.7 7.5 6.9 -0.7 37.3 38.5 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 8.3 8.5 10.2 -1.0 33.0 34.8 8.5 9.7 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 4.9 4.0 5.4 -0.5 41.2 41.9 3.5 4.6 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 7.7 7.7 9.8 -1.3 28.0 29.7 8.1 9.3 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.0 10.2 -0.8 36.0 37.6 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.7 8.4 10.3 -0.8 36.6 38.3 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.6 8.9 -0.8 36.7 38.1 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 7.8 7.9 8.9 -1.6 25.8 27.5 8.5 9.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 7.1 7.2 6.8 -1.4 26.5 28.1 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 7.7 7.8 9.3 -1.7 25.3 27.1 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 6.4 6.5 8.3 -1.5 25.3 27.2 7.1 8.2 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 7.7 6.9 6.6 -0.5 40.6 41.4 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 8.2 8.4 10.2 -1.3 29.1 30.9 8.7 10.0 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------