***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.5 8.1 0.7 61.0 57.5 4.4 5.7 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.4 7.8 0.7 60.4 57.2 4.2 5.6 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.6 7.8 0.8 62.5 58.9 6.4 7.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.7 5.5 0.8 62.0 58.6 1.3 2.7 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.5 6.1 5.8 0.9 63.6 59.6 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 4.8 5.5 4.4 1.1 65.7 62.0 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.3 7.8 0.6 59.5 56.4 4.3 5.6 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 1.1 1.9 4.8 1.1 66.3 62.2 -0.6 0.7 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.5 7.1 6.4 0.9 64.0 59.8 4.8 6.1 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.7 5.2 1.1 65.9 61.3 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.6 6.3 5.6 1.0 65.5 61.0 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.5 5.3 1.0 65.5 61.4 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.9 4.8 0.9 64.1 60.1 3.8 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 6.4 7.0 6.4 0.9 63.7 59.9 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.8 5.9 0.7 61.2 58.2 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.5 7.0 5.1 0.9 64.1 60.2 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.3 7.5 0.6 59.1 56.4 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 5.0 5.7 4.7 1.1 65.5 61.2 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.5 7.8 0.8 61.6 58.2 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.2 2.8 3.6 1.1 65.0 61.6 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.6 7.3 0.9 62.9 59.1 4.3 5.6 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.7 7.5 0.6 59.3 56.7 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.4 7.6 0.8 62.9 59.1 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.6 6.2 6.3 1.0 64.6 60.5 4.1 5.2 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.5 7.0 6.4 0.8 62.7 58.8 4.8 6.1 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.1 5.0 0.7 61.5 58.4 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.7 7.1 7.3 0.8 61.6 57.8 4.8 6.2 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.9 5.7 0.7 61.1 58.2 3.0 4.2 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 4.2 5.0 4.4 1.1 65.5 61.7 2.4 3.7 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.7 8.0 0.7 60.7 57.4 4.4 5.8 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------