***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.2 9.1 -0.4 40.1 42.5 6.9 7.6 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.2 9.0 -0.3 43.5 45.3 6.7 7.5 8.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.4 9.0 -0.3 42.2 44.1 9.0 9.7 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.2 4.4 6.6 -0.5 35.3 39.2 4.3 5.0 5.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.2 6.8 -0.4 38.6 41.6 6.0 6.8 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.4 5.7 5.4 -0.3 41.2 43.8 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.3 8.9 -0.3 41.3 43.4 6.9 7.6 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.5 2.1 5.8 -0.1 46.1 47.6 1.6 2.2 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.5 7.4 -0.3 42.1 43.9 7.1 7.8 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.3 6.2 -0.2 45.3 46.5 6.8 7.5 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.6 6.6 -0.4 40.4 43.0 6.3 7.0 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.7 6.3 -0.3 41.1 43.6 5.3 6.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.0 5.7 -0.5 36.6 40.1 5.8 6.6 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.8 7.6 -0.1 46.8 48.2 7.3 7.9 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 6.9 7.0 7.1 -0.6 32.1 36.6 7.0 7.6 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.4 6.1 -0.5 37.1 40.4 7.2 7.9 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.9 7.5 8.8 -0.1 46.4 47.5 7.0 7.6 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.5 6.2 5.7 -0.1 46.8 47.8 5.6 6.4 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.8 7.4 9.0 -0.2 44.9 46.4 7.0 7.6 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 3.3 3.0 4.5 0.0 50.3 51.2 2.2 2.9 3.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.9 8.4 -0.3 41.1 43.2 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 7.0 6.7 8.8 -0.1 46.9 47.9 6.2 6.8 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.5 7.1 8.8 -0.1 46.2 47.4 6.6 7.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.0 7.4 -0.1 45.9 47.2 6.5 7.1 7.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.9 7.3 7.5 -0.5 37.9 41.1 7.0 7.8 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.1 6.3 5.9 -0.6 35.1 38.8 6.2 6.9 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.9 7.4 8.3 -0.4 39.1 41.8 7.0 7.9 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.3 5.4 6.8 -0.6 33.2 37.5 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.6 5.3 0.0 48.8 49.8 5.0 5.6 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.1 7.5 9.1 -0.3 41.9 44.0 7.1 7.9 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------