***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 21.5 19.8 19.4 -1.1 35.1 35.8 19.6 21.0 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 22.1 20.7 19.5 -1.0 36.6 37.3 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.1 20.5 19.6 -1.1 35.7 36.5 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 12.0 12.2 16.9 -1.6 28.9 30.4 12.7 14.4 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 19.8 20.2 18.0 -1.3 32.3 33.4 20.2 21.7 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 21.4 19.2 16.2 -1.4 32.7 33.9 19.2 20.7 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 21.6 20.3 19.4 -1.0 36.5 37.2 20.0 21.2 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.7 9.9 16.7 -1.1 34.8 35.7 9.8 11.1 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 19.8 20.2 18.9 -1.2 33.8 34.7 20.1 21.5 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.8 20.0 17.5 -1.2 34.3 35.3 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 19.8 20.1 17.8 -1.4 31.8 32.9 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 19.4 19.5 17.3 -1.4 32.1 33.2 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 22.6 20.5 17.4 -1.4 32.7 33.8 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 22.5 21.3 19.0 -0.8 38.9 39.6 20.9 22.1 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 19.2 19.3 18.2 -1.8 26.6 28.5 19.9 21.3 22.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 20.6 20.9 17.6 -1.4 32.0 33.2 21.0 22.4 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 21.2 20.1 19.2 -0.9 38.2 38.8 19.7 20.9 21.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 21.3 19.9 17.1 -0.9 37.8 38.6 19.5 20.8 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 21.8 20.5 19.6 -0.9 37.4 38.1 20.1 21.4 22.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 17.5 16.7 15.7 -0.5 43.1 43.8 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 22.1 20.3 19.5 -1.2 34.6 35.5 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 22.0 20.9 19.4 -0.8 39.2 39.7 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 22.0 20.9 19.7 -0.8 38.8 39.5 20.4 21.6 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 22.1 20.7 18.7 -0.9 37.8 38.6 20.3 21.7 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 21.6 19.8 18.2 -1.2 34.5 35.3 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 22.2 20.2 16.9 -1.3 32.7 33.7 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 21.7 20.3 19.0 -1.0 36.9 37.5 19.9 21.3 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 19.1 19.2 17.5 -1.7 27.7 29.4 19.8 21.4 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 16.9 15.9 16.8 -0.6 42.0 42.6 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 21.8 20.3 19.6 -1.1 35.8 36.6 20.1 21.3 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------