***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.1 15.6 0.2 52.3 52.3 14.2 15.8 17.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.4 15.7 15.4 0.0 49.4 50.7 14.2 15.8 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.5 15.7 0.1 51.6 51.8 14.7 16.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.9 13.9 0.3 53.6 52.8 7.8 9.5 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.9 14.3 0.4 54.4 53.3 14.8 16.5 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.8 13.5 0.7 57.5 55.2 14.6 16.1 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.8 15.3 0.0 50.3 51.3 14.2 15.7 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.4 13.6 0.5 55.4 54.1 6.3 7.9 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.2 14.9 0.3 54.0 53.0 15.1 16.8 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.7 14.1 0.4 54.6 53.5 14.6 16.2 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.3 14.3 0.5 55.4 53.9 15.0 16.8 18.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.0 14.2 0.5 55.3 53.9 14.8 16.5 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.7 13.9 0.5 55.7 54.2 15.4 17.1 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.8 14.8 0.2 51.9 52.1 14.7 16.6 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.4 13.9 0.2 52.3 51.9 13.8 15.2 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 18.3 18.1 14.1 0.5 55.7 54.0 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.3 15.1 -0.1 49.2 50.6 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.8 13.8 0.4 54.4 53.7 13.7 15.3 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.5 15.8 15.5 0.0 49.6 50.7 14.2 15.9 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.8 12.1 0.6 56.1 55.2 11.5 13.2 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.8 15.3 0.3 53.2 52.6 14.8 16.5 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 16.6 15.8 15.2 -0.1 48.5 50.1 14.3 16.0 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.2 15.6 0.0 50.5 51.2 14.4 16.1 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 17.4 17.1 14.9 0.3 53.1 52.7 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.9 14.3 0.3 53.7 53.3 14.1 15.6 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.2 13.8 0.5 55.6 54.4 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.5 15.0 0.2 53.2 53.1 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.8 14.0 0.3 53.3 52.5 13.9 15.5 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.8 13.1 0.5 55.0 54.3 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.4 15.8 15.5 0.0 50.0 51.0 14.2 15.8 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------