***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 19.0 18.4 17.6 -0.4 42.3 44.8 17.9 18.7 19.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 19.2 18.6 17.5 -0.4 42.0 44.6 18.2 18.9 19.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 19.4 18.8 17.7 -0.3 43.5 45.9 18.4 19.1 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.4 11.6 15.6 -0.5 39.3 41.9 11.2 12.1 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 19.5 18.9 16.3 -0.3 43.2 45.5 18.4 19.2 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 18.9 18.4 15.1 -0.2 46.0 47.7 17.8 18.6 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 18.9 18.3 17.4 -0.4 42.0 44.7 17.9 18.6 19.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.6 15.4 -0.2 47.1 49.0 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 19.5 19.0 16.9 -0.3 44.8 46.9 18.5 19.2 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 19.1 18.7 16.0 -0.2 46.6 48.6 18.1 18.8 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 19.5 19.0 16.2 -0.3 44.5 46.8 18.4 19.2 20.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 19.1 18.5 16.0 -0.3 44.2 46.6 18.0 18.8 19.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 19.9 19.3 15.8 -0.4 43.3 45.8 18.8 19.6 20.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 19.8 19.5 17.1 0.0 49.1 50.5 18.8 19.5 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 18.6 17.8 16.0 -0.7 36.4 39.2 17.6 18.3 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 20.3 19.7 16.0 -0.3 43.6 45.9 19.2 20.0 20.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 18.6 18.0 17.3 -0.4 43.1 45.6 17.6 18.3 19.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 18.4 18.2 15.7 0.0 49.6 51.1 17.5 18.2 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 19.0 18.5 17.7 -0.3 43.4 45.8 18.1 18.8 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.5 14.1 0.1 52.7 53.6 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 19.4 18.8 17.4 -0.3 43.6 45.9 18.4 19.1 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 19.3 18.8 17.4 -0.3 44.4 46.5 18.3 19.0 19.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 19.3 18.9 17.8 -0.2 46.0 48.0 18.4 19.1 19.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 19.6 19.2 16.9 -0.1 48.3 49.9 18.5 19.3 20.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 18.7 18.2 16.3 -0.4 42.8 45.1 17.8 18.5 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 19.5 18.9 15.5 -0.4 42.4 45.1 18.5 19.3 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 19.2 18.6 17.0 -0.3 43.9 46.2 18.2 18.9 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 18.9 18.0 15.9 -0.6 38.3 40.9 17.8 18.6 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.6 15.1 0.1 52.0 53.0 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 19.0 18.4 17.6 -0.4 41.6 44.3 18.0 18.7 19.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------