***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.2 3.0 4.7 39.0 36.4 27.6 2.6 5.2 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 1.7 2.8 4.8 42.3 36.9 27.3 2.4 4.8 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 3.4 4.7 5.1 43.0 35.5 27.8 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 6.6 9.7 6.4 48.7 40.1 33.0 7.1 13.8 23.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 5.2 7.0 6.5 48.6 38.0 31.7 5.8 10.2 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 3.3 5.6 6.6 51.7 41.0 32.1 3.8 8.2 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 2.0 3.1 4.5 37.1 33.6 25.1 2.9 6.2 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.7 9.4 8.1 63.7 46.5 37.7 5.5 10.7 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.8 6.7 6.6 50.6 40.0 32.8 5.3 9.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.8 8.8 8.0 59.0 44.4 36.6 6.1 10.2 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 4.2 7.2 6.8 56.5 43.0 35.3 4.7 9.3 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.5 6.4 6.9 60.4 45.5 35.9 3.7 7.6 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 3.1 4.7 6.1 47.9 36.0 28.3 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 5.3 9.3 7.8 58.1 45.2 36.0 6.2 10.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 3.7 5.5 5.6 46.2 39.9 32.3 3.8 8.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 2.5 3.8 6.4 51.0 38.2 30.6 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 1.6 3.0 4.9 42.6 38.3 27.4 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.1 7.8 9.3 64.9 46.5 38.8 5.2 8.5 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 2.6 4.0 5.0 44.6 37.3 27.9 3.4 6.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.6 6.8 10.1 64.4 44.8 36.8 4.4 8.1 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 4.1 6.0 5.7 44.9 38.3 30.4 4.9 8.9 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 2.0 4.4 5.3 49.8 41.8 30.0 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 3.1 4.9 5.5 48.2 37.9 29.5 4.1 7.1 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 5.2 8.4 7.8 58.3 43.8 36.5 6.0 10.0 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 3.8 5.0 5.7 40.2 35.6 28.9 4.5 8.9 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 3.4 6.1 6.1 53.7 42.6 33.3 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 2.7 3.6 5.2 38.9 35.6 28.4 3.1 6.5 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 4.7 7.1 6.0 48.8 40.1 32.7 5.2 10.3 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.6 12.6 10.4 70.9 49.7 41.1 7.3 12.7 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 2.1 3.1 4.8 41.2 35.4 26.7 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------