***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.5 8.9 10.0 87.9 61.4 39.9 2.5 5.7 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.1 11.9 10.1 88.9 61.4 42.5 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.6 10.4 9.7 79.6 57.6 38.9 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 5.3 15.1 11.5 82.3 60.8 39.9 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.7 10.4 11.0 77.6 58.8 39.7 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.5 10.9 12.0 75.7 57.6 40.7 4.1 8.3 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.2 10.8 10.4 93.4 63.2 43.6 3.4 6.8 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.5 16.7 11.5 79.5 59.0 40.5 7.8 13.2 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.1 11.1 10.8 75.3 57.1 39.0 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.4 11.2 11.3 75.7 57.2 39.8 4.1 8.5 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.3 9.4 10.1 76.4 58.5 39.6 3.2 6.9 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.5 10.6 9.8 77.9 59.3 39.8 3.4 7.5 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.5 11.6 10.4 74.1 58.0 39.7 4.5 8.8 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.4 15.0 12.1 82.0 57.7 40.6 5.2 11.2 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 3.2 10.2 11.5 85.3 62.1 39.8 3.2 6.7 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.4 9.7 10.6 77.0 58.7 40.1 3.1 6.8 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.8 9.4 10.8 97.0 64.3 44.6 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.1 12.6 12.6 76.1 56.1 39.8 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.2 12.3 9.9 86.0 60.0 41.5 3.9 8.5 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.2 17.0 17.5 89.6 61.5 43.4 6.2 11.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.8 11.1 9.9 75.6 56.7 37.1 4.3 8.6 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.8 10.5 11.2 94.0 63.2 44.2 2.7 6.2 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.2 11.5 10.0 84.1 58.6 40.7 4.2 8.4 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.4 11.1 11.4 76.5 55.6 38.7 4.2 9.0 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.2 11.3 11.4 81.3 59.6 40.6 4.1 8.2 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 4.1 10.9 9.9 79.9 59.9 40.2 4.3 8.1 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.9 9.0 11.1 85.7 60.5 41.2 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 3.0 9.1 11.3 83.0 61.3 40.0 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.2 18.9 14.1 80.7 58.0 41.6 7.9 14.6 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.8 10.2 9.9 86.3 60.3 41.5 3.6 7.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------