***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 2.2 7.0 9.9 87.3 61.4 40.5 2.4 4.8 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.3 7.2 10.6 96.7 63.9 44.1 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.1 6.5 9.7 85.9 59.9 41.2 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 2.5 8.8 10.6 80.7 59.0 39.3 2.7 6.1 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 2.3 7.0 10.2 78.3 58.1 39.7 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.9 7.9 11.1 75.6 54.6 38.7 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.0 7.6 10.8 101.1 65.3 44.6 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 4.1 10.6 10.7 78.9 56.8 42.0 4.5 8.5 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.3 6.7 10.1 76.8 57.4 39.7 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 3.6 9.1 10.8 77.3 56.5 41.1 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.0 8.3 9.5 80.4 58.8 41.7 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.4 6.8 9.0 78.4 57.0 40.6 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.6 7.6 10.1 78.5 56.2 39.2 2.9 6.1 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.3 11.5 13.4 97.2 63.0 46.5 3.1 7.0 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 1.9 7.6 10.9 84.1 60.7 39.9 2.1 4.9 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 2.6 7.3 9.9 82.7 58.8 41.1 2.9 5.6 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.2 7.6 11.1 104.8 66.8 46.5 2.1 4.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.3 8.8 12.4 79.9 56.2 41.9 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.5 8.3 10.5 93.1 62.6 43.8 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 3.6 9.1 15.4 80.2 56.1 42.8 3.6 7.3 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 2.0 6.2 9.6 78.5 58.2 38.4 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.1 7.4 11.5 104.1 66.2 47.8 1.9 4.1 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.3 7.8 10.9 92.2 62.0 44.2 2.2 4.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 2.4 8.2 11.7 86.8 59.2 42.8 2.4 5.6 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 1.8 6.8 10.9 81.7 59.5 39.6 2.1 4.7 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.2 7.8 8.9 70.9 53.4 37.7 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.2 7.6 11.0 88.5 61.8 41.5 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.6 7.6 10.6 83.6 60.1 40.2 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 4.9 12.0 13.4 80.8 56.4 42.8 5.1 9.7 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.2 7.4 10.3 94.5 62.9 43.4 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------