***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.9 16.0 9.4 117.8 70.2 51.6 3.0 7.1 13.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.1 15.3 10.8 134.8 74.3 54.7 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.3 16.3 10.0 116.3 69.9 51.0 3.5 7.8 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.0 13.0 10.3 94.0 65.2 49.7 3.4 7.3 13.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.1 12.5 10.4 101.5 66.4 49.5 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.1 9.0 10.7 101.1 66.1 49.2 2.1 4.8 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 7.6 12.5 11.1 137.2 74.9 55.2 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.8 17.5 12.1 116.0 69.5 48.6 5.1 9.5 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.8 11.9 10.5 103.5 66.6 49.5 3.6 7.0 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.2 15.3 11.8 108.2 67.5 49.1 4.8 8.9 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.3 12.6 10.6 114.7 69.9 49.8 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.4 11.6 10.5 120.4 71.1 49.2 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.3 12.0 10.5 112.1 69.5 51.4 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.7 25.1 12.6 122.5 71.2 53.4 5.8 11.8 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.9 9.9 10.5 91.4 64.9 48.9 2.3 5.4 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.0 10.9 10.3 112.5 69.7 51.3 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.8 13.8 11.2 142.9 76.1 55.6 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.0 13.2 13.0 108.1 67.1 50.6 3.3 7.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.0 19.6 10.4 128.9 73.0 53.6 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 16.3 15.6 109.0 67.0 49.7 4.4 9.0 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.8 14.1 9.5 103.7 66.6 49.1 3.6 7.7 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.3 18.8 11.4 142.5 76.0 56.3 2.8 6.6 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.3 19.2 10.3 124.2 71.8 52.7 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.9 18.6 12.0 113.1 68.9 52.1 3.3 8.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.5 13.8 10.4 104.5 67.1 51.5 2.6 6.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.7 15.0 10.7 124.6 72.3 49.8 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.5 14.1 10.5 117.9 70.3 53.6 2.9 6.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.7 9.5 10.2 94.9 65.6 49.0 2.5 5.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.4 18.8 13.8 109.2 67.2 50.7 5.9 11.0 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.6 16.3 10.5 130.2 73.3 53.9 2.9 6.6 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------