***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 20.0 28.9 34.0 79.7 46.7 41.0 19.3 31.4 46.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 38.0 32.2 36.3 87.0 52.0 46.2 19.0 30.5 45.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 25.1 33.8 34.6 78.5 44.2 40.6 25.4 38.6 54.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 36.2 48.2 38.8 75.8 44.1 40.9 37.4 54.2 73.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 26.8 33.2 38.0 74.9 42.0 39.7 26.7 39.6 55.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 24.7 31.9 40.4 75.0 41.1 38.9 25.9 39.2 55.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 35.7 29.7 36.8 87.4 52.0 46.0 16.6 28.1 43.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 41.8 53.5 42.4 82.8 46.1 42.5 42.7 57.1 73.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 27.0 32.9 38.0 75.0 42.1 39.7 26.8 38.8 53.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 33.7 42.3 42.0 78.5 43.1 40.6 34.8 47.5 62.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 47.4 37.0 37.1 79.8 46.3 42.5 27.5 39.8 54.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 26.1 35.7 36.2 81.8 47.3 42.9 25.7 37.7 52.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 26.7 34.4 37.2 75.6 41.8 39.4 28.1 40.7 55.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 40.4 57.4 45.9 87.9 48.7 45.0 41.0 58.6 79.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 20.1 31.9 38.5 76.8 46.0 40.9 21.7 35.8 53.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 23.2 31.0 37.2 78.4 44.3 41.1 23.9 35.0 48.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 32.2 28.8 38.0 92.6 55.2 48.8 14.5 24.9 38.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 31.9 40.1 47.4 80.9 42.7 40.9 32.9 46.2 61.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 46.9 38.7 35.7 85.1 50.0 44.8 25.0 38.7 55.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 37.2 47.3 58.7 85.3 45.3 42.8 37.4 51.3 67.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 27.5 33.9 34.6 73.6 41.9 39.0 27.3 40.3 56.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 40.8 38.5 39.4 94.8 55.7 49.2 22.0 33.8 48.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 48.4 37.9 36.8 84.5 47.8 43.6 26.2 39.7 56.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 31.7 42.5 43.0 81.9 44.4 41.8 32.3 48.0 67.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 22.8 30.4 38.3 74.6 42.6 39.5 22.6 37.3 56.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 30.0 39.1 35.7 79.3 45.8 41.9 29.9 42.3 56.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 20.0 29.0 37.8 79.5 46.1 41.2 19.6 32.2 48.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 22.9 33.3 38.1 77.2 45.9 41.6 24.1 36.5 51.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 47.8 60.8 51.7 84.2 44.9 42.5 49.2 65.9 84.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 39.6 31.9 35.5 84.5 49.9 44.4 20.2 32.1 47.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------