***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 9999.0 7.1 8.4 -3.0 11.7 17.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 86 14 0 100 6.8 5.4 7.9 -3.2 9.2 15.2 8.0 9.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 9.7 8.9 8.5 -2.7 13.4 19.2 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 4.4 3.1 6.0 -3.3 8.5 12.4 5.7 6.9 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 6.2 5.3 7.1 -2.6 14.2 19.3 7.2 8.5 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 5.7 5.8 5.9 -1.6 24.9 28.9 6.5 7.8 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 7.3 6.1 7.9 -3.3 8.4 13.9 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 2.2 2.4 6.4 -1.3 29.7 34.0 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 8.0 7.6 8.0 -2.0 19.6 24.6 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 7.6 7.6 6.9 -1.6 25.3 30.1 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 6.9 6.5 7.1 -2.0 19.9 24.8 7.6 8.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 6.0 6.1 6.9 -1.5 26.7 31.1 6.5 7.7 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 6.3 6.7 6.9 -1.4 27.8 31.6 7.1 8.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 8.3 7.9 7.8 -2.1 19.6 25.5 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 92 8 0 100 7.4 6.2 7.3 -3.2 8.5 12.0 8.6 9.8 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 7.8 7.6 6.9 -1.9 20.7 25.2 8.6 9.7 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 7.7 6.3 7.4 -3.4 7.3 13.2 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 6.3 6.6 6.4 -1.3 29.2 33.8 6.9 8.1 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 7.4 6.5 8.1 -2.9 11.2 17.5 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.0 3.7 5.1 -0.7 37.8 41.0 3.3 4.5 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 6.9 6.2 8.4 -2.7 13.8 19.1 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 6.8 5.6 7.7 -3.2 9.0 15.3 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 7.2 6.6 8.4 -2.5 15.2 21.6 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 7.6 7.4 7.7 -1.8 22.7 28.1 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 7.2 5.9 7.4 -3.2 10.0 14.8 8.4 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 7.1 7.3 6.9 -1.2 31.9 35.0 7.4 8.5 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 7.2 5.9 7.9 -3.0 11.4 16.3 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 5.5 4.4 6.7 -3.1 10.0 13.8 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.1 6.5 6.1 -0.9 35.1 38.7 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 7.5 6.4 8.3 -3.1 10.3 16.1 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------