***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 8.1 9.2 -1.0 36.4 39.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 6.9 7.5 8.9 -0.9 36.7 39.8 7.2 8.5 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 9.0 9.5 8.9 -1.0 35.2 38.5 9.3 10.4 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 4.3 4.4 6.6 -1.5 25.6 31.9 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.9 6.2 6.9 -1.2 30.4 35.6 6.4 7.6 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 5.5 5.8 5.4 -1.2 30.9 36.1 5.9 7.0 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 7.1 7.7 8.9 -0.9 36.4 39.4 7.4 8.5 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 1.8 2.3 6.0 -0.8 37.1 40.9 2.0 3.0 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 7.3 7.7 7.6 -1.0 35.3 39.0 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.1 7.5 6.4 -0.9 35.6 39.8 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 6.5 6.7 6.7 -1.1 31.6 36.9 6.8 7.9 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.6 6.0 6.5 -1.0 34.6 39.2 5.9 6.9 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 6.0 6.3 5.9 -1.1 32.8 38.0 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.5 8.1 7.8 -0.7 39.3 42.5 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 7.6 7.5 7.0 -1.5 24.5 30.8 8.0 8.8 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 7.3 7.5 6.2 -1.2 29.8 35.7 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 7.5 8.1 8.9 -0.7 39.7 42.3 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.1 6.7 6.0 -0.8 38.2 41.8 6.3 7.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 7.0 7.6 8.9 -0.9 36.6 39.8 7.3 8.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.2 5.1 -0.4 44.0 46.2 2.5 3.6 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 6.3 6.8 8.4 -1.0 35.2 38.6 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 6.3 7.0 8.8 -0.6 39.7 42.4 6.6 7.7 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 6.5 7.1 8.7 -0.8 36.6 40.1 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 6.5 7.1 7.5 -0.8 37.1 40.8 6.9 7.8 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 6.8 7.2 7.5 -1.2 32.4 36.5 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 6.4 6.9 6.4 -0.9 35.5 40.3 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 6.4 7.1 8.4 -1.0 35.2 38.3 6.9 8.4 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 5.7 5.7 6.8 -1.5 25.2 31.5 6.2 7.1 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 6.0 5.7 -0.6 41.0 43.8 5.5 6.6 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 7.1 7.7 9.0 -0.9 35.7 38.9 7.5 8.7 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------