***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 6.3 8.6 -0.8 32.8 35.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 6.1 6.5 8.2 -0.8 31.7 35.2 6.5 7.3 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 8.5 8.8 8.4 -0.8 33.2 36.2 8.8 9.5 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.8 3.7 6.0 -1.3 23.3 27.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 5.3 5.6 6.5 -0.9 29.8 33.5 5.8 6.6 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 5.0 5.2 5.0 -0.7 34.4 37.2 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 6.4 6.6 8.2 -0.9 31.1 34.8 6.7 7.4 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 1.3 1.7 5.6 -0.5 40.0 42.1 1.4 2.0 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 6.6 7.0 7.2 -0.7 35.8 38.6 6.9 7.6 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.4 6.8 6.0 -0.6 37.8 40.4 6.6 7.3 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 5.8 6.1 6.3 -0.7 33.8 36.9 6.1 6.8 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.0 5.3 6.1 -0.6 37.5 40.1 5.1 5.8 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.5 5.8 5.7 -0.6 36.4 39.1 5.6 6.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.9 7.3 7.3 -0.5 38.8 41.4 7.1 7.7 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 6.5 6.4 6.7 -1.2 23.6 27.4 6.8 7.4 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 6.7 7.0 5.9 -0.8 32.6 35.7 7.0 7.7 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 6.5 6.8 8.0 -0.8 31.9 35.7 6.8 7.4 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.2 5.8 5.6 -0.4 41.1 43.2 5.4 6.2 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 6.4 6.7 8.2 -0.8 32.7 36.1 6.7 7.4 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 1.9 2.6 4.5 -0.2 46.7 47.5 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 6.0 6.3 8.0 -0.8 32.9 35.9 6.3 7.1 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 5.7 6.0 8.0 -0.8 32.6 36.3 6.0 6.7 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 6.1 6.5 8.2 -0.6 35.2 38.2 6.4 7.1 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 6.1 6.5 7.1 -0.5 38.7 41.1 6.3 6.9 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 6.4 6.6 7.1 -1.0 28.5 32.2 6.8 7.6 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.9 6.3 6.0 -0.5 39.6 41.9 6.0 6.7 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 6.4 6.8 7.8 -0.9 31.5 34.7 6.8 7.7 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 4.8 4.8 6.3 -1.2 24.1 28.1 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.7 5.3 5.3 -0.2 45.0 46.3 4.8 5.4 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 6.5 6.9 8.4 -0.8 31.9 35.2 6.9 7.7 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------