***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 9999.0 16.7 15.0 -5.4 2.7 6.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 94 6 0 100 19.3 17.2 15.2 -5.1 4.0 8.7 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 19.0 16.6 15.3 -5.3 3.3 8.1 20.4 21.6 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 10.7 6.4 12.2 -6.3 1.6 5.0 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 18.6 15.8 13.7 -5.6 3.0 7.3 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 17.8 15.6 12.5 -5.1 5.3 11.3 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 18.9 17.0 15.2 -5.0 4.1 8.7 20.1 21.2 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 86 14 0 100 8.7 7.0 13.5 -4.3 8.1 14.8 9.9 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 97 3 0 100 18.6 16.0 14.8 -5.3 3.6 8.3 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 18.5 16.6 13.9 -4.7 6.0 12.0 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 96 4 0 100 18.7 16.3 13.9 -5.2 4.2 9.3 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 18.2 16.3 14.0 -4.5 7.1 13.4 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 19.3 17.7 14.2 -4.4 7.6 14.0 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 90 10 0 100 19.8 18.1 15.0 -4.7 6.0 12.1 21.0 22.1 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 18.2 14.1 13.3 -6.6 1.1 4.3 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 19.5 17.3 13.8 -5.2 4.7 10.0 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 18.7 16.9 15.0 -4.8 4.5 9.3 19.8 20.8 21.8 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 18.4 16.8 13.7 -4.3 7.8 14.9 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 93 7 0 100 19.0 17.0 15.3 -5.0 4.1 9.0 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 15.3 14.1 12.6 -3.4 12.9 21.3 16.1 17.4 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 18.8 16.0 14.9 -5.6 2.8 7.1 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 92 8 0 100 19.4 17.5 15.1 -4.8 4.6 9.5 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 92 8 0 100 19.4 17.4 15.5 -4.9 4.4 9.8 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 91 9 0 100 19.2 17.4 14.8 -4.7 5.6 11.7 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 18.2 15.1 13.5 -5.8 2.1 5.8 19.7 20.9 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 19.0 17.8 14.2 -4.0 9.9 16.3 20.3 21.7 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 96 4 0 100 18.7 16.1 14.4 -5.4 2.7 6.8 20.1 21.3 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 98 2 0 100 17.9 13.8 12.8 -6.5 1.5 5.1 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 14.4 13.1 13.4 -3.8 10.5 18.6 15.4 16.7 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 19.0 16.9 15.3 -5.2 3.7 8.2 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------