***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 19.1 17.5 0.8 59.6 56.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 15.4 18.1 17.3 0.8 60.2 56.7 15.7 17.2 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 15.6 18.6 17.8 1.0 61.6 57.6 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.5 11.0 15.6 0.5 55.5 54.0 8.8 10.5 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 15.6 18.5 16.3 0.8 59.4 56.5 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 19.1 18.2 15.3 1.0 61.2 58.3 15.3 17.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 15.1 17.8 17.2 0.8 59.7 56.4 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 10.8 10.0 15.6 1.1 62.7 59.2 6.8 8.7 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 15.6 18.9 17.0 1.0 61.7 57.9 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 19.2 18.5 16.2 1.2 62.7 58.8 15.7 17.3 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 19.6 18.8 16.4 1.0 61.7 58.3 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 19.2 18.4 16.4 1.1 62.5 59.2 15.4 17.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 19.8 19.1 16.1 1.1 61.9 58.9 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 16.0 19.3 17.1 1.2 64.0 59.2 16.3 18.0 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.9 15.6 0.3 54.1 53.3 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 20.3 19.4 16.2 1.0 61.0 58.0 16.6 18.3 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 15.0 17.7 17.0 0.8 60.9 57.1 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 14.9 18.0 15.9 1.3 63.6 59.4 15.1 16.7 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 15.3 18.1 17.6 0.9 61.3 57.3 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.9 15.5 14.0 1.2 62.6 59.3 12.2 14.1 15.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 15.5 18.5 17.4 0.9 60.5 57.0 15.9 17.6 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 15.6 18.4 17.2 0.9 61.3 57.2 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 15.6 18.6 17.8 1.1 63.0 58.4 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 15.8 19.2 17.1 1.3 63.9 59.3 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 15.2 17.6 16.1 0.6 57.9 55.3 15.5 17.0 18.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 19.3 18.7 16.0 1.1 62.4 59.5 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 15.4 18.3 16.8 0.7 59.1 56.0 15.8 17.4 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 15.3 17.6 15.8 0.4 55.2 54.1 15.5 17.2 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.0 14.6 15.1 1.3 63.4 59.5 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 15.2 18.0 17.5 0.8 60.1 56.6 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------