***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 17.8 16.7 -1.0 31.0 35.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 17.7 17.9 16.6 -0.9 33.0 36.4 17.9 18.6 19.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 17.9 18.1 16.9 -0.9 33.9 37.7 18.1 18.9 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 10.6 10.6 14.6 -1.4 24.9 30.2 11.0 11.9 12.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 17.9 18.1 15.5 -1.0 31.8 36.3 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 17.3 17.7 14.4 -0.8 36.5 40.1 17.6 18.4 19.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 17.4 17.6 16.5 -0.9 33.0 36.4 17.6 18.4 19.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.2 14.9 -0.5 41.4 44.2 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 18.0 18.3 16.2 -0.8 35.5 39.4 18.2 19.0 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 17.6 18.1 15.4 -0.6 39.5 42.7 17.8 18.6 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 17.9 18.3 15.6 -0.8 35.9 39.7 18.2 19.0 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 17.6 18.1 15.6 -0.6 39.8 42.8 17.8 18.6 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 18.4 18.9 15.4 -0.6 39.6 42.4 18.5 19.4 20.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 18.3 18.9 16.4 -0.5 41.3 43.6 18.5 19.3 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 17.0 16.9 14.9 -1.6 22.1 27.8 17.4 18.1 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 18.8 19.1 15.4 -0.8 35.5 39.2 19.0 19.8 20.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 17.1 17.4 16.3 -0.8 34.1 37.0 17.4 18.1 18.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 17.0 17.7 15.2 -0.4 43.4 45.7 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 17.6 17.8 16.8 -0.8 34.3 37.6 17.8 18.5 19.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 14.3 15.0 13.4 -0.2 46.0 47.7 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 17.9 18.1 16.5 -1.0 32.3 36.6 18.1 18.9 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 17.7 18.1 16.5 -0.8 34.4 37.2 18.0 18.8 19.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 17.9 18.3 17.0 -0.7 37.2 40.1 18.1 18.8 19.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 18.1 18.7 16.3 -0.5 40.9 43.6 18.3 19.1 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 17.2 17.3 15.2 -1.2 28.6 33.1 17.5 18.2 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 18.1 18.6 15.2 -0.5 40.7 43.2 18.2 19.0 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 17.6 17.8 16.0 -1.0 31.0 35.0 17.9 18.7 19.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 17.1 17.1 14.9 -1.5 24.5 29.9 17.5 18.4 19.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.1 14.5 -0.2 45.8 47.6 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 17.5 17.7 16.7 -0.9 32.6 36.2 17.7 18.5 19.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------