***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 13.8 21.4 170.4 81.1 71.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 10.1 11.4 16.9 134.4 74.0 64.4 2.0 4.5 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 12.8 16.1 20.6 166.0 80.6 71.7 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 27.6 44.1 27.6 217.9 88.3 81.2 7.0 12.8 20.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 18.0 25.9 25.0 197.0 85.4 79.5 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 19.1 46.2 35.4 306.4 95.1 91.8 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 12.1 13.6 16.7 132.9 73.5 61.9 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 22.5 34.7 27.2 214.5 88.0 82.9 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 15.3 21.0 23.8 188.3 84.6 77.3 4.4 7.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 17.4 24.7 26.7 198.8 86.0 80.2 4.9 8.6 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 18.1 28.4 26.2 226.7 88.6 83.6 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 17.2 31.1 25.9 248.1 90.6 85.5 3.0 6.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 16.4 33.1 30.6 276.6 93.4 89.4 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 19.4 23.2 21.3 148.3 77.1 70.3 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 19.5 40.2 31.2 268.4 92.2 84.7 3.2 7.1 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 15.1 29.5 28.7 256.7 92.0 87.6 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.8 8.8 14.0 108.4 66.9 56.5 2.3 4.7 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 15.1 20.3 26.0 182.7 83.9 78.1 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 11.4 13.1 17.5 139.4 75.2 66.1 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 18.7 24.9 29.0 180.2 83.6 79.3 4.7 8.6 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 14.5 19.7 22.9 183.5 83.5 75.8 4.1 7.3 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.3 9.5 14.4 106.7 66.3 57.3 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 14.1 16.7 18.2 143.7 76.1 67.0 3.8 7.1 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 16.4 21.1 23.1 172.1 81.7 75.0 5.3 8.9 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 16.0 20.7 23.4 170.4 81.4 73.5 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 18.8 42.8 28.6 286.1 93.7 89.2 2.6 6.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 11.2 14.4 21.8 160.5 79.5 70.1 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 22.8 43.6 30.5 263.2 92.0 85.8 4.8 9.5 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 22.7 28.9 25.7 168.7 81.5 76.1 6.6 11.6 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 10.7 12.8 18.6 147.5 77.0 67.3 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------