***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 8.7 9.8 91.1 61.8 42.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.7 8.7 10.2 101.6 64.8 45.9 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.6 8.1 10.2 93.1 62.3 43.1 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.0 8.6 9.9 78.7 58.0 40.6 2.7 6.2 11.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.9 8.4 10.5 86.5 60.5 42.9 2.7 5.7 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.0 7.0 10.8 79.1 56.7 41.1 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.5 8.7 10.2 102.9 65.0 45.1 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.4 11.7 11.3 87.0 60.2 43.5 4.5 8.5 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.6 9.2 10.9 89.0 61.1 42.8 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.5 12.0 11.7 89.5 61.0 43.5 4.2 8.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.7 9.8 9.3 83.9 59.5 41.6 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.7 7.7 9.0 83.2 58.8 41.7 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.9 7.6 9.6 81.4 57.7 42.0 2.8 5.8 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.4 14.5 13.6 98.0 63.4 46.8 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.1 6.4 9.2 72.7 56.5 39.4 1.8 4.8 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.1 7.5 9.3 81.9 58.5 42.0 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.5 8.6 10.3 105.9 66.5 47.9 2.4 4.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.1 10.4 13.7 90.1 60.7 44.4 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.4 10.3 10.2 97.7 63.6 45.6 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.2 17.0 89.4 61.4 47.3 3.4 7.4 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.9 10.3 90.2 61.7 42.8 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.5 10.6 103.0 65.7 49.4 2.8 5.5 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.6 10.8 94.2 62.3 45.2 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.5 10.9 12.6 93.4 61.8 44.1 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.8 11.1 87.4 61.1 43.4 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.9 8.2 9.0 81.0 57.5 40.6 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.0 8.3 10.6 89.1 61.0 42.8 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.2 9.2 74.9 56.8 39.9 2.9 5.7 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.1 14.8 15.2 89.5 60.7 46.0 5.3 10.4 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.8 8.8 10.0 97.7 63.3 44.4 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------