***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 11.8 9.9 102.9 66.6 52.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.7 10.4 101.5 65.3 50.8 2.7 5.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.0 14.0 10.2 106.7 66.9 52.6 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.2 13.5 10.4 101.1 65.1 49.8 3.6 7.7 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.1 12.2 10.5 108.0 66.6 51.5 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.9 8.4 10.6 96.2 62.8 48.6 2.5 5.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.1 7.6 10.0 95.8 63.4 49.4 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.2 15.3 12.0 108.2 66.9 53.0 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.8 11.8 10.7 112.9 68.1 52.3 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.8 14.3 12.0 113.4 68.2 53.9 4.6 8.2 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.7 11.0 10.0 106.8 66.1 50.9 3.5 6.5 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.3 10.1 9.8 105.1 65.9 49.8 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.7 10.8 10.0 98.7 63.9 48.7 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 17.1 22.8 13.9 114.7 68.7 54.3 6.5 12.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.0 10.5 10.6 102.1 65.5 48.4 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.4 9.6 9.6 100.2 63.9 48.7 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.5 8.4 10.5 103.3 65.5 49.3 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.1 13.2 13.5 111.3 67.4 54.1 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.1 14.1 10.6 104.9 66.2 51.6 3.5 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.6 13.8 16.2 99.7 64.5 52.8 4.1 8.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.0 14.3 10.2 112.1 68.5 53.1 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.1 12.5 11.4 112.3 68.2 52.0 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.2 16.4 11.4 110.8 67.8 53.0 4.0 8.5 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.9 18.0 12.4 112.7 68.1 54.4 4.1 9.2 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.3 11.8 10.7 100.8 65.3 51.8 2.5 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.7 11.7 10.1 102.5 65.6 49.0 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.1 9.7 10.6 98.7 65.0 51.7 2.6 5.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.0 9.7 10.1 101.5 65.0 48.7 2.6 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.2 17.4 14.4 104.9 65.6 52.8 5.9 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.1 11.2 10.2 101.1 65.4 51.3 3.1 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------