***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 46.6 47.5 112.7 65.7 58.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 34.8 40.1 44.2 106.3 62.5 55.5 17.5 28.9 43.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 43.1 52.9 47.4 113.4 66.1 59.2 23.8 36.8 52.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 59.6 72.1 52.4 114.8 66.8 60.7 36.6 52.3 71.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 44.4 55.7 51.9 117.3 68.0 61.5 26.1 38.5 53.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 57.0 64.0 63.5 129.5 74.1 68.4 23.7 36.7 53.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 33.0 37.1 43.9 104.6 61.6 54.8 16.5 27.4 41.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 75.5 79.2 58.1 123.9 71.5 64.1 40.1 55.0 71.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 43.5 54.2 51.4 117.4 68.3 61.1 25.7 37.7 51.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 51.9 66.4 57.6 121.4 70.4 63.0 32.7 46.0 61.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 55.3 59.1 51.2 124.7 71.5 64.3 23.9 36.7 52.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 54.5 59.2 50.6 128.2 73.3 65.8 24.7 36.7 50.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 57.3 64.3 56.7 129.3 74.1 68.0 26.8 39.4 54.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 66.0 76.5 56.8 110.6 64.4 56.7 38.8 57.0 79.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 55.8 57.1 55.7 124.2 71.0 64.1 20.4 33.5 50.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 50.9 55.5 53.5 127.2 72.9 66.5 22.5 33.8 47.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 30.7 32.1 42.2 101.4 59.8 52.5 14.3 24.6 37.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 50.9 63.4 61.7 115.7 67.6 59.9 31.8 45.4 61.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 43.8 50.1 44.8 107.1 62.9 55.9 23.2 37.0 53.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 56.0 66.3 74.6 113.3 66.3 59.4 36.2 50.2 66.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 44.2 56.3 49.2 117.3 68.0 61.3 25.6 38.5 53.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 39.5 40.9 43.4 100.7 59.3 52.2 21.7 33.3 47.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 46.6 52.8 46.8 107.9 63.1 56.1 24.9 38.9 56.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 54.2 67.8 55.5 114.9 67.0 59.1 31.0 46.9 66.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 42.8 51.0 52.0 110.0 64.2 58.2 22.2 35.8 53.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 59.2 65.0 53.8 129.6 73.9 67.6 28.5 41.0 55.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 36.6 41.8 49.7 107.1 62.6 56.4 19.1 30.8 45.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 53.6 56.0 54.3 123.7 70.8 64.5 22.8 35.0 50.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 71.4 81.2 65.1 110.5 64.3 57.1 48.4 65.0 83.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 36.4 42.9 45.4 108.2 63.6 57.0 19.5 31.1 45.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------