***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9.7 9.2 11.5 -0.1 48.3 48.1 8.1 9.3 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 9.7 9.4 11.1 0.0 50.2 49.9 8.0 9.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 11.9 11.7 11.7 0.0 50.8 50.1 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 7.3 7.5 9.5 0.4 57.4 56.2 5.7 6.9 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 8.9 8.7 10.1 0.1 51.7 51.0 7.2 8.5 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 8.1 8.3 7.9 0.5 57.8 56.5 6.5 7.8 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 9.8 9.4 11.0 -0.1 47.8 47.7 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.7 7.5 0.0 49.3 49.2 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 10.1 9.8 9.8 0.0 49.9 49.6 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 9.6 9.3 8.3 0.0 50.0 49.8 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 9.2 8.8 9.4 -0.1 48.9 48.8 7.6 8.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.0 7.7 8.5 0.0 50.2 50.0 6.5 7.7 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 8.6 8.8 8.8 0.4 57.3 56.0 7.1 8.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 10.0 10.2 9.9 0.4 57.3 55.7 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 10.1 10.5 11.4 0.6 61.2 59.6 8.6 9.8 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 10.0 10.1 9.2 0.3 55.6 54.5 8.6 9.7 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 9.9 9.7 10.8 0.1 51.0 50.5 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 8.4 8.2 7.9 0.1 52.4 51.7 6.9 8.1 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 9.8 9.5 11.1 0.0 49.6 49.3 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 4.8 4.4 6.2 -0.1 48.4 48.5 3.3 4.5 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 9.5 9.4 11.1 0.1 52.7 51.8 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 9.0 8.9 11.2 0.2 52.8 52.0 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 9.4 8.9 11.0 -0.2 46.9 46.9 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 9.3 9.4 9.9 0.3 55.8 54.5 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 10.2 9.5 10.8 -0.2 46.7 46.7 8.4 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 8.8 8.9 8.3 0.4 56.9 55.5 7.4 8.5 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 10.4 9.9 11.1 -0.1 48.7 48.5 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 8.3 8.9 10.1 0.7 62.2 60.4 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 7.7 7.2 6.9 -0.1 47.3 47.7 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 10.2 9.8 11.3 -0.1 48.1 48.0 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------