***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 5.6 8.3 0.1 51.9 52.0 4.1 5.5 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.5 7.8 0.0 50.5 51.3 3.9 5.4 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.8 7.5 8.1 0.0 50.0 51.4 6.1 7.5 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 0.7 2.8 5.6 0.2 53.0 53.4 1.0 2.6 4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.8 5.9 0.1 50.9 52.2 3.4 4.8 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.3 4.3 0.1 51.7 53.9 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.4 7.8 0.1 50.8 50.9 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.9 0.3 4.2 0.0 49.8 51.9 -1.1 0.4 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.1 5.8 6.2 0.1 50.7 52.1 4.3 5.7 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.5 4.9 0.0 50.6 52.3 4.3 5.4 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.6 5.0 5.3 0.0 49.5 51.3 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 4.8 4.1 4.7 -0.1 49.1 51.2 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.7 4.4 0.0 49.8 51.8 3.6 4.8 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.8 6.1 -0.1 48.6 50.4 4.6 5.9 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.5 5.3 6.6 0.3 54.3 54.3 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.4 5.8 4.8 0.0 49.8 51.6 4.6 5.9 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.4 7.6 0.0 50.1 50.7 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.4 4.2 0.0 50.3 52.1 3.0 4.3 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.4 7.8 0.0 49.7 51.1 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.0 1.6 2.9 0.1 51.5 53.3 0.1 1.4 2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.6 5.4 7.5 0.1 51.7 52.5 3.9 5.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.7 7.4 -0.1 48.5 50.0 3.4 4.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.1 7.6 -0.1 48.4 50.4 4.0 5.3 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.1 5.8 0.0 49.7 51.5 3.8 5.1 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.2 7.2 0.3 54.0 53.8 4.5 5.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.2 4.3 0.0 50.7 52.7 4.0 5.2 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.2 7.8 0.2 53.2 52.8 4.4 6.0 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.1 5.6 0.2 53.0 53.5 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 4.1 3.5 3.9 0.0 50.4 52.4 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.7 8.0 0.0 50.4 51.2 4.1 5.6 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------