***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 18.3 19.7 18.4 -0.3 46.1 46.7 18.6 20.0 21.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 18.2 19.4 18.0 -0.8 40.7 43.1 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 18.3 19.7 18.5 -0.5 43.6 45.2 18.8 20.2 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 11.4 13.6 16.1 0.3 54.1 51.9 11.7 13.2 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 18.6 20.0 17.1 -0.3 46.1 47.0 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 20.5 20.0 16.0 0.1 51.6 52.0 18.5 19.9 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 17.8 19.0 17.9 -0.8 40.2 42.8 18.4 19.8 21.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.3 10.5 15.9 -0.3 46.5 47.9 9.5 10.8 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 18.5 20.0 17.8 -0.3 46.3 47.2 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 18.4 19.8 16.7 -0.2 48.1 48.7 18.6 19.9 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 18.8 20.0 17.4 -0.5 44.8 46.3 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 18.3 19.5 16.7 -0.5 44.2 46.3 18.6 20.0 21.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 19.2 20.2 16.8 -0.7 42.4 45.4 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 18.7 20.1 17.5 -0.6 43.6 45.8 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 20.1 20.0 18.0 0.5 56.2 53.1 18.3 19.6 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 19.6 20.8 16.9 -0.5 44.7 46.7 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 17.6 18.6 17.5 -0.9 38.9 41.9 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 17.6 19.0 16.2 -0.3 47.2 48.5 17.9 19.2 20.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 18.1 19.3 18.2 -0.8 40.5 43.1 18.7 20.0 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 14.9 16.0 14.2 -0.5 44.0 46.9 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 18.4 19.8 18.3 -0.4 45.5 46.5 18.8 20.2 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 18.4 19.4 17.6 -0.9 38.7 41.8 18.9 20.3 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 18.5 19.6 18.3 -0.9 39.9 42.8 19.1 20.4 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 18.5 20.0 17.7 -0.4 46.0 47.4 18.9 20.3 21.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 18.2 19.5 17.2 -0.2 47.9 47.7 18.5 19.7 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 19.1 20.2 16.2 -0.6 43.5 46.8 19.4 20.6 21.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 18.4 19.8 17.8 -0.3 46.7 47.1 18.7 20.0 21.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 20.4 20.1 17.0 0.4 54.7 52.5 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 13.7 15.0 15.4 -0.5 44.8 47.1 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 18.0 19.2 18.2 -0.7 42.0 44.0 18.5 19.9 21.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------