***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.4 16.2 0.6 57.4 57.2 13.7 15.6 17.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.1 16.0 0.3 54.1 54.5 13.9 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.8 16.5 0.5 56.0 56.2 14.3 16.1 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.4 13.9 0.7 58.3 58.0 7.5 9.5 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 17.0 16.8 14.8 0.5 55.8 56.6 14.4 16.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.5 13.8 0.7 57.6 57.9 14.0 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.0 15.9 0.4 54.4 54.8 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.4 14.2 0.7 57.3 57.8 5.9 7.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.3 15.5 0.6 57.0 57.3 14.6 16.5 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.8 14.8 0.8 58.2 58.3 14.1 16.0 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.1 15.1 0.5 55.6 56.6 14.5 16.4 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.8 14.9 0.6 56.2 57.2 14.3 16.1 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.4 14.5 0.5 56.1 57.2 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.0 15.5 0.5 55.4 55.9 14.4 16.4 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 13.3 15.9 14.6 0.8 60.3 59.0 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.9 14.8 0.6 56.4 57.2 15.4 17.3 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.6 15.6 0.3 53.5 53.9 13.6 15.2 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 17.2 16.1 14.8 0.9 59.0 59.0 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.1 16.2 0.3 53.8 54.4 13.8 15.7 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 14.9 13.8 12.7 0.8 58.7 58.9 11.0 12.9 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.0 16.0 0.6 57.1 57.2 14.4 16.2 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.1 15.6 0.2 52.9 53.5 14.0 15.8 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.3 16.4 0.3 53.3 54.1 14.0 15.9 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.4 15.7 0.7 57.5 57.6 14.6 16.5 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.2 14.8 0.7 58.6 58.0 13.6 15.4 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.9 14.3 0.5 55.7 57.2 14.7 16.3 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.9 15.7 0.7 58.6 57.9 14.1 16.0 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.3 16.1 14.3 0.7 58.8 58.5 13.6 15.3 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 14.2 12.9 14.0 0.8 58.4 58.9 10.0 12.0 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.1 16.1 0.4 54.8 55.2 13.8 15.6 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------