***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 18.8 18.3 18.0 -0.1 47.6 47.8 17.7 18.4 19.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 17.7 18.2 17.6 -0.6 38.8 41.4 17.9 18.6 19.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 18.0 18.6 18.2 -0.3 44.3 45.5 18.1 18.9 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.1 12.3 15.9 0.5 58.7 55.4 11.0 11.9 12.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 19.3 18.9 16.8 -0.1 48.1 47.8 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 18.7 18.7 15.8 0.4 56.6 53.9 17.6 18.4 19.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 17.4 17.9 17.5 -0.6 38.4 41.1 17.6 18.4 19.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.6 15.8 0.0 49.8 49.3 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 19.4 19.0 17.5 -0.1 49.0 48.6 18.2 19.0 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 17.7 18.7 16.5 0.1 51.7 50.6 17.8 18.6 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 18.0 18.9 17.1 -0.2 47.0 46.9 18.2 19.0 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 17.6 18.4 16.6 -0.2 47.2 47.2 17.8 18.6 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 18.3 19.1 16.6 -0.3 45.5 46.1 18.5 19.4 20.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 19.6 19.0 17.2 -0.3 44.4 46.2 18.5 19.3 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 18.3 18.6 17.4 0.7 61.5 57.9 17.4 18.1 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 20.2 19.7 16.7 -0.1 48.1 47.8 19.0 19.8 20.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 17.2 17.5 17.1 -0.8 36.5 39.5 17.4 18.1 18.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.3 18.0 16.1 0.0 50.6 50.4 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 17.6 18.1 17.8 -0.6 39.0 41.5 17.8 18.5 19.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 14.2 15.1 14.1 -0.1 47.7 48.3 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 19.2 18.8 17.9 -0.1 47.7 47.8 18.1 18.9 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 17.8 18.2 17.2 -0.7 36.7 39.7 18.0 18.8 19.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 17.9 18.4 18.0 -0.6 38.7 41.5 18.1 18.8 19.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 19.4 19.0 17.4 -0.1 48.0 48.6 18.3 19.1 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 18.5 18.3 16.8 0.0 50.6 49.8 17.5 18.2 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 18.1 18.9 16.0 -0.2 46.4 46.7 18.2 19.0 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 19.0 18.6 17.5 -0.1 48.5 48.5 17.9 18.7 19.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 18.6 18.8 16.7 0.6 60.0 56.5 17.5 18.4 19.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.7 14.2 15.4 -0.1 48.0 48.6 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 17.5 18.1 17.8 -0.5 40.9 43.0 17.7 18.5 19.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------