***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9.9 13.4 19.1 166.5 80.3 72.2 2.1 4.5 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 10.8 15.9 20.3 179.9 82.3 73.9 2.0 4.5 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 12.8 15.8 18.6 165.9 80.2 74.0 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 15.9 24.8 16.7 122.5 71.8 58.0 7.0 12.8 20.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 15.2 19.0 17.3 144.7 76.6 65.3 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.7 16.5 14.5 130.8 73.6 58.3 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 12.6 18.0 19.3 170.2 80.9 71.3 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 18.9 21.8 18.8 137.7 75.1 64.6 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 13.5 16.9 18.2 151.4 77.8 68.6 4.4 7.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 15.3 18.4 19.9 147.0 76.9 68.8 4.9 8.6 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 14.4 17.0 16.2 133.3 74.3 63.6 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 13.7 15.8 15.7 134.9 74.6 62.0 3.0 6.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 12.9 15.6 16.2 141.6 75.9 62.7 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 22.2 31.9 27.2 213.7 86.5 80.3 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.0 14.2 13.4 101.8 67.6 51.9 3.2 7.1 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.8 14.4 15.8 140.5 75.7 62.4 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 11.1 16.6 21.3 190.9 83.8 74.9 2.3 4.7 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 13.8 17.3 22.0 157.6 78.8 72.3 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 12.2 17.7 21.3 189.5 83.5 76.3 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 16.2 18.7 20.5 138.5 75.1 66.3 4.7 8.6 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 13.4 16.7 18.0 155.2 78.4 70.2 4.1 7.3 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 12.9 22.3 26.0 230.7 88.5 81.2 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 16.1 22.7 22.6 199.9 84.7 78.2 3.8 7.1 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 16.6 21.2 22.0 178.1 81.9 76.1 5.3 8.9 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 14.1 19.8 19.7 164.9 80.0 69.7 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.5 17.2 14.0 137.6 75.2 56.4 2.6 6.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 10.7 15.1 19.9 170.5 80.9 71.6 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 12.3 18.6 14.6 114.5 70.3 56.2 4.8 9.5 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 21.0 26.0 21.9 154.5 78.2 71.6 6.6 11.6 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 10.7 14.6 19.2 170.1 80.8 72.7 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------