***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.5 15.6 14.5 135.9 74.6 54.8 2.2 5.5 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.6 17.4 14.3 142.6 76.0 59.0 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.7 20.8 15.6 141.1 75.6 55.5 3.6 8.0 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.0 22.8 16.0 136.5 74.7 56.1 5.3 10.3 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.9 18.9 16.6 150.6 77.6 58.1 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.9 20.9 17.1 133.3 73.8 56.0 4.4 9.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.5 15.4 13.6 140.0 75.5 57.5 2.9 6.0 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.5 28.4 17.5 141.3 75.7 56.8 7.7 13.6 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.6 21.2 17.2 153.9 78.2 58.7 3.6 7.6 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.1 22.4 17.9 149.2 77.2 58.7 3.3 7.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.0 17.7 16.5 148.7 77.2 59.2 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.6 20.5 16.5 147.1 76.9 57.8 3.3 7.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.2 24.4 17.0 151.2 77.7 57.1 4.3 9.1 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.6 30.6 20.5 159.5 79.3 59.4 4.1 9.3 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.1 13.3 14.1 123.7 72.1 53.4 2.7 5.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.1 19.6 16.5 147.9 77.0 58.5 3.0 6.9 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 10.9 12.6 13.8 139.4 75.3 58.5 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.9 27.7 19.3 151.4 77.7 57.0 4.4 9.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.7 20.0 14.7 143.3 76.1 57.8 3.4 7.5 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.2 26.0 23.3 152.1 77.9 58.9 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.9 21.7 15.9 145.6 76.6 56.2 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 13.7 17.6 15.3 153.0 78.0 61.8 2.7 5.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.6 19.2 15.8 147.1 76.9 56.6 2.9 6.7 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.2 25.2 18.5 150.7 77.6 57.5 3.3 8.2 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.4 18.1 15.3 129.7 73.1 53.1 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.2 20.1 17.5 142.6 75.9 55.6 4.6 8.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.4 15.9 15.2 134.0 74.1 54.8 2.8 6.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.9 12.6 15.0 132.1 73.9 55.3 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.1 35.5 21.0 154.1 78.3 58.1 6.2 13.0 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.1 16.1 14.4 140.3 75.5 57.7 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------