***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.4 10.1 11.2 102.5 66.3 51.1 3.4 6.1 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.3 10.0 11.7 112.5 69.0 55.0 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.8 10.0 11.7 109.5 68.4 53.4 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.3 11.0 11.4 94.8 64.3 49.2 2.7 6.2 11.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.2 9.6 10.6 94.8 64.0 49.7 2.7 5.7 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.6 9.1 80.8 59.2 46.0 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.3 9.5 11.5 108.8 67.8 54.9 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.4 10.3 82.1 59.3 47.2 4.5 8.5 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.4 10.1 11.0 95.6 64.0 50.3 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.1 12.3 11.2 89.9 61.9 49.1 4.2 8.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.4 9.5 87.7 61.4 47.8 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.8 9.0 80.9 59.2 46.8 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.6 10.0 86.9 61.5 48.0 2.8 5.8 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.7 18.1 14.8 118.1 70.6 58.0 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.3 8.1 11.1 87.6 62.4 46.5 1.8 4.8 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.3 9.5 87.9 62.0 47.8 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.8 9.7 12.3 116.5 70.1 56.4 2.4 4.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.8 12.9 96.7 64.4 51.8 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.6 12.6 11.8 115.0 69.7 55.3 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.9 15.1 92.5 63.1 49.7 3.4 7.4 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.0 9.1 11.1 101.0 65.8 50.7 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.7 10.9 12.4 115.3 69.8 56.9 2.8 5.5 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 12.5 12.5 12.3 119.9 71.0 56.8 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.1 13.5 13.1 107.8 67.8 55.2 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.8 9.1 11.9 99.7 65.7 50.5 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.4 10.2 85.7 61.5 47.9 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.2 10.0 11.7 103.8 66.7 52.0 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.1 8.7 10.4 89.8 62.7 47.1 2.9 5.7 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.0 16.9 13.7 98.6 64.9 53.0 5.3 10.4 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.3 10.2 11.5 108.3 67.8 54.0 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------