***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.1 8.7 11.3 76.3 56.5 40.0 3.2 6.9 12.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.0 7.6 11.3 85.5 58.5 42.1 2.7 5.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.7 9.4 10.9 75.1 55.2 39.7 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.6 9.9 12.5 76.7 56.6 41.0 3.6 7.7 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.7 8.5 11.0 74.0 55.1 39.2 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.5 6.9 12.0 79.6 57.3 41.5 2.5 5.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.8 7.0 11.8 89.8 60.7 42.6 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 4.5 10.8 12.0 77.8 55.7 39.6 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.4 7.6 10.8 72.2 53.4 37.8 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.2 9.4 11.6 74.1 53.9 38.6 4.6 8.2 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.3 8.1 10.8 77.1 56.3 39.3 3.5 6.5 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.9 7.5 10.9 77.8 56.5 39.5 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.3 8.5 11.8 78.2 56.7 40.3 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 6.4 13.6 12.3 71.8 52.7 40.1 6.5 12.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.8 8.3 13.9 80.5 59.1 40.9 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.0 7.6 11.3 77.9 56.8 40.3 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.6 7.0 11.7 90.2 60.4 42.8 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 3.4 7.8 12.1 72.4 52.3 39.3 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.9 9.9 10.9 80.5 56.3 41.1 3.5 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 3.9 9.9 15.5 77.1 54.9 40.7 4.1 8.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.4 8.5 10.4 71.5 53.8 37.9 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.0 9.0 12.4 89.5 59.9 43.3 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.1 10.2 10.7 75.4 54.3 40.5 4.0 8.5 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.2 10.2 11.5 71.7 52.5 39.3 4.1 9.2 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.7 7.7 11.5 72.5 55.0 38.8 2.5 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.4 8.7 12.1 75.7 56.5 40.8 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.5 7.2 11.6 76.3 56.5 39.8 2.6 5.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.6 7.4 12.1 76.8 57.1 40.5 2.6 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 5.4 11.8 12.9 74.0 52.9 40.5 5.9 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.0 8.8 11.6 84.1 58.6 42.0 3.1 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------