***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 36.3 48.4 56.1 117.3 68.0 61.7 18.9 30.9 46.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 48.8 51.3 57.7 128.3 72.3 65.8 17.5 28.9 43.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 42.1 56.5 56.9 119.8 69.0 63.4 23.8 36.8 52.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 59.2 66.8 56.6 105.4 62.7 56.1 36.6 52.3 71.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 44.7 53.5 55.4 113.3 66.2 59.9 26.1 38.5 53.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 44.5 48.0 52.7 104.8 61.6 54.5 23.7 36.7 53.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 45.4 47.5 56.3 125.6 71.4 64.5 16.5 27.4 41.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 61.5 69.1 58.6 108.6 63.6 57.7 40.1 55.0 71.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 42.9 53.0 57.3 115.3 67.0 60.8 25.7 37.7 51.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 51.9 60.9 60.6 112.9 65.8 60.0 32.7 46.0 61.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 42.8 50.9 53.1 110.3 64.8 58.7 23.9 36.7 52.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 42.2 48.7 52.0 108.6 63.9 57.3 24.7 36.7 50.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 45.5 53.7 55.0 111.7 65.4 58.1 26.8 39.4 54.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 83.9 96.4 74.8 135.5 75.5 69.4 38.8 57.0 79.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 40.9 42.6 52.6 96.4 59.4 52.5 20.4 33.5 50.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 39.5 47.0 53.2 111.3 65.3 58.5 22.5 33.8 47.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 42.0 46.8 59.1 132.6 73.9 66.9 14.3 24.6 37.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 50.9 63.4 66.2 116.8 67.8 62.0 31.8 45.4 61.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 60.1 63.6 58.8 129.6 72.9 66.7 23.2 37.0 53.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 56.3 65.4 74.4 112.5 65.6 58.9 36.2 50.2 66.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 43.9 55.0 55.5 115.3 67.1 61.3 25.6 38.5 53.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 54.8 63.3 66.0 144.1 78.3 71.6 21.7 33.3 47.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 61.9 68.1 61.4 132.0 73.8 67.9 24.9 38.9 56.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 46 54 100 68.8 73.4 65.0 123.2 70.5 64.8 31.0 46.9 66.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 43.1 53.8 58.5 113.3 66.3 59.5 22.2 35.8 53.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 46.3 52.6 53.8 106.9 63.2 55.4 28.5 41.0 55.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 36.3 47.9 58.4 118.0 68.3 61.3 19.1 30.8 45.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 41.3 45.2 52.0 101.4 61.2 54.6 22.8 35.0 50.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 71.0 86.5 69.5 117.6 68.1 62.3 48.4 65.0 83.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 48.7 50.4 56.7 123.4 70.5 64.1 19.5 31.1 45.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------