***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 9.1 11.4 1.9 85.6 78.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 8.1 8.8 10.8 1.6 82.2 74.4 6.4 7.1 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 10.1 10.9 11.2 1.9 86.8 79.6 8.6 9.3 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 5.6 6.3 9.2 1.9 86.9 81.0 3.9 4.6 5.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 7.5 8.4 9.4 1.9 86.3 80.2 5.6 6.4 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 6.8 7.8 7.8 2.1 90.0 85.1 5.0 5.7 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 7.9 8.5 10.8 1.6 81.8 74.0 6.5 7.2 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 2.8 3.5 8.0 1.8 86.1 80.4 1.2 1.9 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 8.5 9.3 9.9 2.0 86.9 80.5 6.7 7.4 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 8.0 8.7 8.5 1.8 85.7 79.5 6.4 7.0 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 7.7 8.5 9.0 1.9 87.2 81.5 5.9 6.6 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 6.7 7.4 8.6 1.9 87.3 81.9 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 7.3 8.1 8.2 2.0 87.6 82.6 5.4 6.2 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 8.3 9.0 9.7 1.8 85.2 78.5 6.9 7.5 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 8.2 9.1 10.0 2.2 91.0 85.7 6.6 7.2 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 8.6 9.4 8.7 2.0 88.2 82.9 6.8 7.5 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 8.0 8.4 10.3 1.3 78.1 70.7 6.6 7.2 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 6.9 7.6 7.8 1.7 83.8 77.5 5.2 6.0 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 8.0 8.7 10.9 1.7 84.3 76.6 6.6 7.2 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 3.5 4.1 6.4 1.6 82.1 76.3 1.8 2.6 3.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 7.9 8.8 10.8 1.9 86.3 79.5 6.2 6.9 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 7.2 7.6 10.3 1.4 79.0 71.8 5.8 6.5 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 7.8 8.7 10.9 1.9 87.5 80.2 6.3 6.9 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 7.5 8.2 9.5 1.8 85.9 79.3 6.1 6.7 7.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 8.5 9.4 10.1 1.9 86.7 79.6 6.7 7.5 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 7.4 8.1 8.3 1.8 85.8 80.7 5.8 6.5 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 8.5 9.6 10.7 1.9 85.6 78.1 6.6 7.5 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 6.8 7.6 9.5 2.0 88.9 83.6 5.0 5.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 6.2 6.8 7.3 1.7 83.9 78.0 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 8.3 9.1 11.1 1.8 84.3 76.5 6.7 7.5 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------