***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 8.2 10.6 1.8 73.5 66.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.7 10.0 1.6 71.9 65.4 4.8 6.1 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 9.6 9.9 10.1 1.7 73.6 66.5 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 4.7 5.0 8.2 1.5 73.4 67.3 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 6.9 7.1 8.3 1.5 72.2 66.0 4.0 5.3 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 6.2 6.8 6.9 1.8 75.6 70.0 3.3 4.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 7.3 7.5 10.0 1.6 71.3 65.1 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 2.7 2.8 7.0 1.4 71.0 65.4 -0.4 1.1 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 7.8 8.1 8.9 1.5 72.1 65.5 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 7.4 7.5 7.5 1.4 70.3 64.2 4.7 6.0 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 7.0 7.2 8.0 1.5 72.8 66.6 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 6.2 6.5 7.7 1.5 72.9 67.1 3.3 4.6 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.8 7.3 1.6 72.6 67.1 3.7 5.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 7.7 7.8 8.6 1.3 69.8 63.3 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 7.4 7.9 8.8 1.8 76.9 70.4 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 7.8 8.2 7.6 1.6 73.8 67.9 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 7.2 7.2 9.5 1.3 68.6 63.0 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 6.4 6.2 6.9 1.2 67.6 62.0 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 7.5 7.8 10.0 1.6 72.9 65.9 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 3.2 2.9 5.7 1.1 66.3 61.9 0.2 1.6 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 7.5 7.8 9.7 1.6 72.8 66.0 4.7 6.0 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 6.6 6.6 9.5 1.3 68.6 62.7 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 7.3 7.7 9.8 1.6 73.8 66.3 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 6.9 6.9 8.4 1.3 70.3 63.8 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 8.0 8.2 9.0 1.7 73.3 66.8 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 6.7 6.8 7.4 1.4 70.7 66.3 4.1 5.3 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 8.3 8.6 9.8 1.7 73.1 66.5 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 6.0 6.5 8.4 1.6 75.0 68.8 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 5.7 5.5 6.4 1.1 66.9 61.7 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 7.8 8.1 10.2 1.7 73.1 66.3 5.1 6.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------