***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 7.1 9.2 1.4 67.9 63.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.6 6.6 8.7 1.2 66.5 62.0 3.4 5.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 8.9 8.8 8.9 1.4 69.0 64.4 5.6 7.1 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 4.4 4.3 6.8 1.3 68.4 64.2 0.7 2.4 4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 5.8 5.7 6.9 1.3 67.0 62.9 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 5.3 5.3 5.2 1.3 68.8 65.4 2.6 3.9 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.5 6.4 8.7 1.2 65.8 61.4 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 1.8 1.5 5.6 1.2 65.5 62.3 -1.4 0.1 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 7.1 6.9 7.6 1.3 67.4 63.1 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 6.4 6.2 6.2 1.2 66.0 62.3 3.7 5.0 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 6.0 5.9 6.5 1.2 66.9 62.8 3.3 4.6 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 5.3 5.0 6.1 1.2 65.8 62.4 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 5.8 5.5 5.6 1.1 65.7 62.2 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 7.2 7.0 7.5 1.3 67.3 63.2 4.1 5.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 6.1 6.3 7.3 1.5 72.0 67.2 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 7.0 6.8 6.0 1.2 67.1 63.1 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.6 6.3 8.4 1.1 64.0 59.9 3.5 5.1 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 5.4 5.1 5.7 1.2 65.1 61.8 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.6 6.6 8.8 1.3 67.6 63.0 3.5 5.1 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 1.5 1.9 4.4 1.0 62.6 60.4 -0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 6.7 6.5 8.4 1.4 67.8 63.4 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.7 8.4 1.1 64.4 60.3 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 6.5 6.6 8.6 1.4 68.9 64.4 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 6.4 6.2 7.3 1.4 67.9 63.8 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 7.2 7.0 7.7 1.4 68.3 64.0 4.0 5.4 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 6.3 5.9 5.8 1.1 65.7 62.9 3.7 4.8 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 7.4 7.1 8.5 1.4 67.9 63.5 3.7 5.4 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 4.9 5.0 6.9 1.4 70.0 65.5 2.3 3.6 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 5.0 4.6 5.3 1.1 64.5 61.5 1.6 3.2 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 7.0 7.0 8.9 1.3 67.5 62.9 3.7 5.3 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------