***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 9999.0 24.1 24.0 3.8 92.2 88.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 23.1 24.3 23.4 3.3 88.6 84.8 20.5 21.5 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 23.3 25.2 24.1 3.8 92.1 87.8 20.4 21.5 22.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 16.8 19.0 22.2 3.9 90.6 87.3 12.7 14.3 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 23.6 25.6 23.2 4.0 92.4 88.7 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 22.9 24.7 21.4 4.0 90.8 87.5 19.3 20.7 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 22.7 23.8 23.2 3.2 87.5 83.7 20.1 21.1 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 13.4 15.4 21.6 4.0 92.3 88.5 10.1 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 23.6 25.8 23.9 4.0 93.2 89.1 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 23.2 25.2 22.4 3.9 92.1 87.9 19.9 21.2 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 23.7 25.7 23.1 4.0 92.1 88.5 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 23.3 25.7 22.7 4.3 93.5 90.1 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 24.1 26.4 23.1 4.5 94.2 91.0 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 24.0 25.4 22.9 3.3 89.1 84.6 20.9 22.1 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 23.2 25.4 23.8 4.2 92.8 89.8 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 24.6 26.7 23.1 4.3 93.2 89.9 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 22.3 23.1 22.5 2.8 84.6 81.2 19.8 20.8 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 22.8 24.6 21.4 3.5 90.4 85.7 19.6 20.8 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 23.0 24.5 23.8 3.6 90.7 86.8 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 19.4 21.0 19.5 3.5 90.7 86.4 16.3 17.5 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 23.3 25.1 24.1 3.7 91.3 87.1 20.3 21.4 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 23.2 24.1 22.6 2.9 85.7 82.2 20.5 21.6 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 23.3 25.2 24.1 4.0 93.2 89.1 20.6 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 23.6 25.2 22.8 3.5 90.5 85.8 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 22.8 24.7 22.9 3.8 91.8 87.9 19.7 20.9 22.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 23.7 25.7 22.2 4.1 92.4 89.5 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 23.1 24.8 23.3 3.6 91.3 87.1 20.1 21.3 22.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 23.6 25.8 23.0 4.0 91.1 88.0 19.6 21.1 22.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 18.6 20.2 20.6 3.4 90.1 85.4 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 22.9 24.3 23.8 3.6 90.4 86.4 20.2 21.2 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------