***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 21.3 19.9 1.7 72.9 66.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 21.3 21.4 19.7 1.6 71.4 64.8 18.2 19.6 20.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 21.3 21.6 20.1 1.8 72.8 66.1 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 14.4 14.8 18.7 2.0 75.2 69.1 11.3 12.7 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 21.4 21.6 18.8 1.8 72.6 67.2 18.4 19.8 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 21.0 21.2 17.7 1.9 73.4 68.8 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 20.8 20.9 19.5 1.4 70.3 64.2 17.9 19.2 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 11.7 11.7 17.7 1.7 70.9 66.8 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 21.3 21.5 19.2 1.8 71.9 66.5 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 20.9 21.0 18.2 1.7 70.6 66.1 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 21.5 21.7 18.7 1.9 72.9 67.8 18.5 19.8 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 21.0 21.2 18.6 1.9 73.0 68.2 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 21.8 22.0 18.4 1.9 73.3 68.6 18.9 20.2 21.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 21.7 21.6 18.8 1.6 68.7 63.4 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 20.7 21.5 19.2 2.3 79.9 73.0 17.9 19.1 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 22.2 22.5 18.6 1.9 73.5 68.5 19.3 20.6 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 20.7 20.4 19.0 1.3 67.6 62.5 17.7 19.0 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 20.0 19.9 17.5 1.5 67.8 64.0 17.3 18.6 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 21.1 21.3 19.9 1.7 72.4 65.5 18.1 19.5 20.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 17.4 17.1 15.5 1.3 66.2 63.6 14.6 15.9 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 21.2 21.4 19.6 1.8 72.0 66.1 18.3 19.7 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 21.4 21.2 19.1 1.3 67.6 62.6 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 21.3 21.6 20.0 1.8 72.8 65.8 18.6 19.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 21.4 21.4 18.9 1.7 69.9 64.6 18.4 19.8 21.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 20.5 20.8 18.7 1.8 74.3 67.7 18.0 19.1 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 21.5 21.4 17.8 1.5 69.7 66.2 18.9 20.0 21.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 20.9 21.2 19.2 1.7 72.7 66.3 18.2 19.5 20.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 21.0 21.5 19.0 2.1 76.2 70.2 17.9 19.3 20.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 16.4 16.1 16.6 1.3 66.1 62.9 13.5 14.9 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 20.9 21.1 19.9 1.7 72.4 65.5 18.0 19.3 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------