***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 18.7 18.7 1.8 69.8 64.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 17.4 18.5 18.4 1.8 69.6 64.1 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.8 19.1 18.8 1.9 70.0 64.6 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 12.0 12.4 17.2 1.9 70.2 65.4 8.8 10.4 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 18.0 19.4 17.6 1.9 69.6 64.8 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 18.8 19.1 16.6 2.1 70.8 66.3 15.3 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 18.2 18.2 18.2 1.7 68.8 63.9 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 10.4 10.5 16.6 1.8 68.8 64.3 7.0 8.6 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 18.2 19.5 18.1 1.9 69.4 64.5 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 17.7 18.9 17.2 1.9 68.8 64.1 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 19.2 19.6 17.6 2.0 70.7 65.9 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 19.0 19.3 17.5 2.0 70.4 65.7 15.5 17.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 19.6 20.0 17.2 2.0 70.7 66.1 16.2 17.9 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.3 19.3 17.8 1.7 68.0 62.8 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.7 18.0 17.5 2.0 72.3 67.3 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 20.1 20.4 17.5 2.1 71.0 66.3 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.8 17.9 1.6 67.9 63.0 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 17.1 18.0 16.6 1.7 66.8 62.4 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 17.4 18.6 18.7 1.9 70.3 64.5 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 14.7 15.6 14.5 1.4 64.8 61.2 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 17.9 19.1 18.5 1.8 69.2 64.2 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 17.6 18.5 18.0 1.6 67.9 62.8 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 17.7 18.9 18.8 2.0 70.8 64.7 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 18.2 19.3 17.8 1.8 68.5 63.3 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.2 18.3 17.4 1.8 69.9 64.9 15.4 16.7 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 17.9 19.0 16.7 1.6 67.2 63.5 15.8 17.4 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 18.8 19.0 18.0 1.8 69.4 64.6 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 18.5 18.8 17.6 2.0 71.1 66.3 15.3 16.9 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.7 15.7 1.5 65.4 61.5 11.5 13.1 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 18.2 18.4 18.6 1.8 69.9 64.5 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------