***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 17.7 17.1 1.6 70.2 63.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 17.6 17.8 16.9 1.6 70.5 63.9 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 18.2 18.5 17.4 1.7 71.0 64.4 14.0 16.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 11.6 11.7 15.5 1.6 70.1 64.6 7.3 9.3 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 18.3 18.3 16.0 1.6 69.1 64.2 14.1 16.0 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 17.4 17.6 14.9 1.8 69.9 65.0 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 17.4 17.5 16.7 1.5 69.2 63.1 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 9.5 9.3 14.9 1.5 67.0 63.4 5.7 7.5 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 18.7 18.6 16.5 1.6 69.0 64.0 14.3 16.3 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 18.0 17.8 15.6 1.5 67.6 63.5 13.9 15.8 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 18.6 18.5 15.9 1.6 69.4 64.8 14.3 16.2 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 18.0 17.9 15.7 1.6 68.6 64.5 13.9 15.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 18.6 18.5 15.5 1.7 69.2 65.0 14.4 16.3 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 18.6 18.6 16.5 1.6 68.5 63.2 14.3 16.3 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 16.9 17.2 15.8 1.7 72.4 66.1 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 19.2 19.2 15.7 1.7 69.9 65.1 15.0 16.9 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 17.0 16.9 16.4 1.4 68.0 62.4 13.2 15.0 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 17.4 16.9 15.1 1.4 65.9 62.3 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 17.7 18.1 17.3 1.7 71.5 64.7 13.5 15.5 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 14.8 14.1 13.0 1.2 63.3 61.1 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 18.2 18.3 16.9 1.6 69.4 63.8 14.1 16.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 17.8 17.8 16.6 1.5 68.6 62.9 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 17.9 18.4 17.5 1.8 72.0 65.1 13.7 15.7 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 18.7 18.7 16.5 1.6 68.5 63.4 14.4 16.4 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 17.4 17.5 15.8 1.5 69.7 64.1 13.4 15.3 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 17.9 17.7 15.1 1.5 66.9 63.6 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 17.8 18.0 16.4 1.5 69.3 63.6 13.8 15.8 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 17.3 17.5 15.8 1.7 71.0 65.2 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 14.1 13.5 14.3 1.3 64.5 61.7 9.8 11.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 17.5 17.8 17.1 1.6 70.9 64.2 13.4 15.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------