***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 10.7 12.9 113.9 68.2 54.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.8 8.4 11.8 102.5 63.8 54.0 2.1 4.8 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.3 9.1 10.7 98.7 62.5 51.7 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.7 14.8 9.4 84.3 59.2 48.4 6.0 11.3 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.1 8.4 8.4 76.8 54.3 45.5 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.5 6.8 8.6 73.1 52.8 45.5 2.7 6.0 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.5 10.4 13.1 111.5 67.2 56.0 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.7 9.3 7.8 66.5 48.7 43.4 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.0 8.2 74.7 52.9 44.5 3.3 6.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.6 8.1 9.0 75.2 52.9 46.6 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.0 7.4 72.8 53.2 46.1 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.1 5.9 6.2 61.4 47.9 41.7 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.8 5.9 6.5 58.2 48.1 42.1 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.3 11.7 88.5 58.5 50.6 4.9 9.4 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.1 9.3 8.2 73.2 56.0 45.1 4.0 7.7 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.7 7.0 65.4 51.2 44.0 2.5 5.4 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 6.5 8.0 11.9 97.7 62.6 52.4 2.3 4.9 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.4 8.7 10.2 76.9 52.0 46.2 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.8 11.2 98.0 62.2 53.3 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.2 7.4 9.3 60.0 44.3 40.1 4.7 9.1 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.4 9.7 90.0 59.7 48.6 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 7.5 7.3 10.7 83.6 56.8 47.4 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.9 11.0 95.2 61.6 53.2 3.1 6.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.9 10.5 86.6 56.9 48.6 4.1 7.2 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.3 9.5 11.5 95.0 62.4 49.7 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.4 5.2 6.4 55.0 45.4 38.6 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.6 13.9 110.9 67.4 53.9 2.1 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.6 10.0 8.1 75.8 56.4 46.4 4.3 8.2 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.4 10.6 10.0 70.9 49.1 43.7 6.1 10.9 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.8 8.7 12.1 106.5 65.5 55.1 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------